7/19: Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading Plan

2023年7月19日

Recap

Yesterday, traders saw the power of simple, classic chart patterns in cutting through the immense amount of noise in the market. On July 10th, we tested the support of a perfect 3-month ascending triangle at 4420, triggering initial longs. Since last Wednesday, we've been squeezing for the best trade of 2023.

The Markets Overnight

🌏 Asia: Mixed
🌍 Europe: Mixed, UK up strongly
🌎 US Index Futures: Up slightly
🛢 Crude Oil: Up
💵 Dollar: Up a bit
🧐 Yields: Down
🔮 Crypto: Up

World Headline

Stubborn UK inflation down, printing below expectations.

Key Structures

Some core big picture structures and levels to watch now (from highest to lowest) are:

4532: This was the area we broke out last Thursday morning, and back-tested it on Sunday evening and Monday morning this week. Key support now and fail there likely starts a sell back to 4490s.

4493: This represents the major June/July resistance and is resistance of the ascending triangle structure. Breakout is fully in play above there, with failure there resulting in a failed breakout and requiring either more time in chop, or a deeper sell leg.

The large rising uptrend channel in white: This connects the March lows and the May lows is the primary medium term channel.

Support Levels

Supports are: 4586, 4575, 4565 (major) 4553, 4542, 4533 (major), 4524, 4515-18 (major), 4509, 4493 (major), 4486, 4473-76 (major), 4456-60 (major), 4447, 4441, 4425-30 (major), 4408-12 (major).

Resistance Levels

Resistances are: 4595-4600 (major), 4613 (major), 4625, 4636 (major), 4647, 4656 (major), 4664-68, 4680, 4691, 4700 (major).

Trading Plan

The trading plan for today is to wait for price discovery and prepare to react. If we defend 4575-65, we could attempt to tag 4600 then 4613, and try a pullback from the low 4600s.

Wrap Up

After the run we've had, it's difficult to predict the market's next move. However, by focusing on key structures and levels, and having a solid trading plan, traders can navigate through the market noise and make informed decisions.

Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.