Stock Market Remains Bullish, Swing Trades Abound

2020年7月7日

The stock market, as indicated by the S&P 500 and the NYSE Advance-Decline (AD) line, remains strong.

The NYSE AD pushed to new highs on June 8, while the S&P 500 remains below its high (February). This has historically been a very reliable indicator that the S&P 500 will also follow through to new highs over the next several months.

A quick note on some other indicators (from bottom to top on chart below):

-- AD line at new highs (already discussed).

-- Market is stabilizing with fewer and fewer 2%+ movement days. Big movement is more characteristic of a bear market, not a bull market. This is one-day Rate of Change ( ROC ).

-- Upside volume divided by total volume on the NYSE is constantly hitting 0.8 (80%). That tends to be more common in early stages of a major advance. Then, as the trend progresses, there tends to be more days under 80%.

-- 73% of NYSE stocks are above their 50-day moving average (as of July 6 close). That means lots of uptrends and still lots of opportunities for swing trading on the long side.