Overnight we broke down under the channel trendline (red) that I've been watching. They sat on it for quite a while, broke down, retested it, and then final failure. It does seem that the channel trendline is/was important to the shape of the price movement and should help us decide which way price wants to go.
I see two possibilities for today - both marked on the chart. I'm leaning more towards the bearish side - especially if we test the channel trendline and fail. IF we get over the channel, retest it, and hold over it - I suspect we may be making a triangle which is common for a B wave before the next C up. There is some bullish divergence on the 15 and 30 minute minute charts but the size of any bounce is unknown.
So who will be the April fools today? Bulls? Bears?
Time will tell.
Trade cautiously and good luck as always
I see two possibilities for today - both marked on the chart. I'm leaning more towards the bearish side - especially if we test the channel trendline and fail. IF we get over the channel, retest it, and hold over it - I suspect we may be making a triangle which is common for a B wave before the next C up. There is some bullish divergence on the 15 and 30 minute minute charts but the size of any bounce is unknown.
So who will be the April fools today? Bulls? Bears?
Time will tell.
Trade cautiously and good luck as always
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There is one other option which I want to mention - we retest/break the lows. Daily bullish divergence seems to suggest we should have more upside first, but if news becomes extremely sour, this may play out regardless of the technicals.
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Starting to bounce, looking for futures to get to around 2520-30 which would be the area of the channel line. They may break the line and then sell it once they suck in longs.
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If this ABC is correct, the trendline (ES futures) should help stop the uptrend
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Be careful we may be seeing this
Funny that gold is following the market and seems to be anticipating it's moves today.
Funny that gold is following the market and seems to be anticipating it's moves today.
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This hidden trendline may be important to the price. Doesn't mean anything unless it works as support here at the bottom, but it caught my eye anyway....
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If wave 5= wave 1, then this structure should visit 2448 area before making a pullback. it doesn't have to, but those measurement rules can come in handy at times.
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Couldn't quite understand the waves at the end of the day, but I think this is what is playing out. Note the resistance area (red line) and channel (dark red line).
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Looks like we may be putting in a double correction. We haven't moved up enough, but the price feels like it wants to come down first. Could be a chopfest overnight into tomorrow.
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No move down overnight, we've been in this channel instead. Waiting for a breakdown of it with a retest to short. Will update the overall idea soon
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Possibly already done with the up move (hit Larger channel resistance - Red line), but will wait for confirmation
