ETH:BTC, Timing is everything... Target 0.178 BTC (+370%)

2021年1月21日

Understanding the relationship between BTC Vs. ETH is crucial to maximizing your BTC stash. When ETH runs so do the Alts and your BTC value also increases. When BTC runs everyone stops and watches in awe. So given the price action of BTC lately, your alt bags have probably been making some nice USD gains, but I bet you've been hemorrhaging BTC value? For most people the aim of being in alts is to out-preform BTC. So if that's your aim, you need to know when to be in BTC and When to be in Alts.

The current market feels to me like we're in Jan of 2017. During this time ETH:BTC did a 20x to its ATH in Jun of 2017. After that it continued to bleed out until Dec. If you held ETH during that period you would have lost 85% of your BTC value. And the next high wasn't until late Jan 2018. Are we going to repeat a similar pattern this time around? Will ETH and the Alts get their time to shine? Well the Elliott Wave count identified here suggests ETH could go as high as 0.178 BTC this time around... i.e. 5.3 ETH per BTC... This count also supports the narrative that like 2017, we could get two alt seasons this cycle. And if that's correct the first 'real' Alt season should start very soon (if it hasn't already). Watch for the breakout of the USD ATH & the local :BTC high at 0.04.

Key Points

• 2017 High was 6.41 ETH per BTC ~ 0.156 BTC each
  
• 2019 Low was 61.91 ETH per BTC ~ 0.016 BTC each
  
• Currently 26.3 ETH buys 1 BTC ~ 0.038 BTC each
  
• BTC:USD has doubled it's All Time High since it broke out
  
• ETH:USD is about to test it's ATH
  
• ETH:BTC is about to test the local high (0.0405) set in late Aug 2020
  
• Higher lows, Higher Highs
  
  Elliott wave targets
  - First wave leading diagonal complete
  - Second wave retraced to the high probability zone for a second wave (0.618)
  - Wave 3 target: 0.1 BTC
  - Wave 5 target 1: 0.143 BTC
  - Wave 5 target 2: 0.178 BTC
  
• This count suggests ETH:BTC is currently in the 3rd wave (often the longest and most explosive wave)
  
• There's also an inverse 'head & shoulders', & the target is in confluence with the wave 3 target at +150% (0.1 BTC)
  
  
• Watch for resistance around the 0.0477- 0.0508 & the 0.0534- 0.0569 areas
  - Edge of channel
  - Important level tested Mar 2017, Apr-May 2017, Oct-Nov 2017, Mar 2018
  - 0.618 fib retracement from 2018 high to 2019 low
  - High Volume Node in confluence with the 0.5 Fib taken from the 2017 high to 2019 low
  

The following supports the points mentioned above:







Never Trust. Verify.
D.Y.O.R. Not Financial Advice Just an Observation.
Technical Analysis is not about being right, it's about increasing your odds.
Be prepared to be wrong. Risk management is key. Capital preservation above all else.

2021年3月15日

ノート

With everyone's attention on the layer 2's, this pullback look's excellent for an entry anywhere around here... There's a nice 200% + potential trade on the table to get us to the 3rd wave target. Honestly this chart looks B-E-A-U-TIFUL!