mega opportunity on eurnzd

2018年8月1日

we have a long term mega opportunity on eurznd, on the weekly time frame it display a gigantic symmetric pattern. the pair has reached its upper ceiling, this is as simple as that, and by joint management between ECB and the bank of new zealand, the pair will be hammered down to its lower ceiling, basically come back to the initial point of the symmetric pattern. the interesting point here is that being short on eurnzd gives you money overnight to keep this position, we will then keep this position for very long term waiting for it to reach the 1.40 region, meanwhil we will daily cash in the negative swap price for us every day. beyond the macro/banking management ideas that are behind this idea (largely enough to justify it), the pair displays a mega bearish divergence which fuels even more our idea

2018年8月1日

ノート

the trade is just launched, we already are with 2000NZD in profits, these trade must be kept long term and intraday deviations shall not make us close this trade as we are exactly in the region of the upper ceiling

2018年8月10日

ノート

the last high was just some pips above the last weekly high, how convenient, so now we have all the theoretical parameter to justify the weekly divergence. moreover just after hitting this scary for bears new high, the price action was agressively bearish with very high volume. we wait for the weekly close to see the general picture to see if there is any reason for panic or not. the geometrical setting is clear, any deviance would be seen rapidly so now as long as there is no derailment above the last high of today no reason to protect the short positions.
all this mess comes from the fragile equilibrium eurnzd=eurusd/nzdusd=eurjpy/nzdjpy, even if nzd cannot resist the strength of usd and jpy it is enough for nzd to fall less than eur will (or rise more than eur) to have eurnzd going down

2018年8月22日

ノート

trade cancelled waiting for a better understanding of the situation

2018年12月8日

ノート

the drop to 1.66 and even below indeed occured and it was fast and furious but not before a spectacular and strange rise to 1.80 before, mainly a typical stop loss hunting procedure before triggering this fall. this was a typical trade that for me and i guess many others created a lot of latent losses for at the end a small profits, i had to support more than 100000NZD losses on this one before patiently waiting to see it going down at just got 4~5000NZD in profits ... almost nothing, i was really satisfied already with this miracle drop to 1.71, i closed it very fast as soon as it was profitable just to discover that if i had let it evolve i would have made 80000NZD ... this straight line descent from 1.80 to 1.63 was quite surprising. as a result ... i am out of good idea now on eurnzd.

2019年1月15日

ノート

long term forecast on this one is too confusing, better to discard it from the book