Higher timeframes point to a break of 1.1250

2020年6月24日

EUR/USD:

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

May, as you can see, recovered off worst levels and wrapped up a few pips shy of monthly highs out of demand from 1.0488/1.0912.

June extended gains, though recently ran into opposition at the lower ledge of supply from 1.1857/1.1352 (unites with long-term trendline resistance [1.6038]) – the month currently trades off best levels.

With reference to the primary trend, price has exhibited clear lower peaks and troughs since 2008.

Daily timeframe:

Brought forward from previous analysis -

EUR/USD recently addressed a potential reversal zone (PRZ), derived from a harmonic bearish bat pattern, comprised of an 88.6% Fib level at 1.1395, a 161.8% BC projection at 1.1410 and a 161.8% Fib ext. level at 1.1462 (red oval).

It’s typical to see traders sell PRZs and place protective stop-loss orders above the X point, in this case at 1.1495. Common take-profit targets fall in at the 38.2% and 61.8% Fib levels (legs A/D) at 1.1106 and 1.0926, respectively.

H4 timeframe:

Tuesday’s rejection off resistance at 1.1348 stirred a decisive sell-off Wednesday, snapping a two-day winning streak.

According to technical structure, the pair is tipped for more near-term underperformance today until crossing paths with trendline support (prior resistance – 1.1422). Additional areas to be mindful of are demand at 1.1189/1.1158 (prior supply), trendline support (1.0780) and another demand at 1.1115/1.1139.

H1 timeframe:

Following London’s open Wednesday, EUR/USD exhibited a one-sided market to the downside amid a stronger-than-expected USD recovery.

Channel support (1.1168), together with the 1.13 level, put up little fight and led candles towards the 1.1250 hurdle, which, as you can see, currently joins with the 100-period simple moving average. South of this point re-opens the risk of a return to 1.12 that intersects with demand at 1.1181/1.1202. Also note this demand area is glued to the top edge of H4 demand at 1.1189/1.1158 and intersects closely with H4 trendline supports (1.1422/1.0780).

Indicator-based traders will also want to note the RSI is seen fast approaching oversold territory.

Structures of Interest:

Higher timeframes point to a break of 1.1250. As such, a H1 close formed under the aforesaid level today will likely see breakout sellers push for the 1.12 structure.