EUR/USD buyers could be lurking around the 200-day SMA

The euro has already seen a decent selloff heading into Thursday's ECB meeting, where expectations for them to cut by 25bp are high. And that runs the risk that that the cut is already priced in, and could leave the euro susceptible to a bounce if a dovish tone (hint of further cuts) are not also delivered.

Prices are trying to hold around the 1.09, near the 200-day EMA and monthly S2 pivot point. We have inflation data from Europe up shortly, and if that comes in soft then perhaps we'll see another low. But given the size of the selloff already seen, I suspect buyers could be lurking around the 200-day SMA and a countertrend bounce to 1.0950 at a minimum could be due.

MS.