EUR/USD Decline, USD Gains Momentum as Strong Job Data

10月3日

The US labor market continues to exhibit strength, bolstering the US dollar as recent data beats expectations. The US JOLTS Job Openings report, released on Tuesday, showed a surprising increase of 329K job openings, rising from a revised 7.711 million in July to 8.040 million in August. This unexpected surge reinforces the resilience of the US economy, providing near-term support to the US dollar. Additionally, today's ADP private sector survey reported that 143K jobs were added in September, exceeding the 120K forecast, while August's reading was revised upward from 99K to 103K.

These positive labor market signals have intensified the dollar's bullish momentum, particularly against the euro. As we previously forecasted for EUR/USD, the price rejected our key Supply area and has already reached the first take-profit target. With the pair edging closer to our second target, the US dollar's strength looks set to drive EUR/USD lower, with the next potential support sitting at the 1.09500 area.

Strong US Labor Data Drives Dollar Higher
The JOLTS and ADP reports reflect the robustness of the US labor market, providing the Federal Reserve with more room to maintain higher interest rates. With job openings and private sector employment both outperforming expectations, market sentiment is increasingly favoring the US dollar as investors anticipate the Fed may continue its hawkish stance.

The surge in job openings suggests that demand for labor remains high, which could keep inflationary pressures elevated and justify further rate hikes or prolonged tight monetary policy. Likewise, the ADP data highlights sustained private-sector job growth, reinforcing the overall strength of the labor market and lending further support to the greenback.

EUR/USD Under Pressure: Aiming for 1.09500?
On the technical front, EUR/USD remains under pressure after rejecting the Supply area as anticipated in our earlier forecast. The pair has already hit the first take-profit level, and further downside appears likely if today's US Unemployment Claims report comes in better than expected. A less severe unemployment figure compared to the forecast would strengthen the dollar further, pushing EUR/USD toward the 1.09500 support zone.

The pair has been trending lower due to a combination of strong US economic data and a weaker euro, as the European Central Bank (ECB) takes a more cautious approach to monetary policy. This divergence between the Fed and the ECB has weighed heavily on the euro, and with US data continuing to outperform, the trend could persist in the near term.

Key Data to Watch: US Unemployment Claims
Today, the market will focus on the release of US Unemployment Claims data, which could further influence the direction of EUR/USD. Should the report come in better than forecast, indicating a continued decline in unemployment, the dollar would likely strengthen further, pushing the pair closer to the 1.09500 mark.

In conclusion, the combination of strong US labor data and hawkish expectations for the Federal Reserve is fueling dollar strength, pressuring EUR/USD lower. If today's unemployment claims report aligns with the recent positive trend in US employment, a continuation of the bearish momentum could drive the pair to our next target. Traders should watch the unemployment claims release for further confirmation of this downward move.

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