EURUSD Wave 5: Bulls and Bears Battle It Out
アップデート済
The bear and the bull fight each other through out this 2 years, it is a perfect definition of wave 4 of Elliot wave
Weekly Timeframe
Trading Implications
For those who entered long positions earlier this week, the 1.06 level (below C) serves as a potential stop-loss level. (remember that unfilled gap at 1.06400)
Additional Considerations
A more conservative approach would involve waiting for price to break above the D peak (1.09200), followed by a retracement, before initiating a buy trade. This strategy may require patience, as it could take several weekly candles (several weeks) for EURUSD to ascend.
Fundamental Analysis
Suggestion
Price action this week will be crucial for further confirmation.
For scalping and intraday trading, i recommend to follow this great timeframe as a guideline.
Disclaimer
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Please conduct your own research and consult a financial advisor before making any trading decisions.
Weekly Timeframe
- Price failed to break through the 1.091 resistance last week and plunged to the 1.068 area, which coincides with the 38.2% retracement of the presumed wave 3.
- This aligns with the expected 38.2% retracement for the end of wave 4.
- The formation of a triangle pattern is also a valid interpretation, as all subwaves (ABCDE) follow the 3-3-3 structure.
- However, the exact bottom of wave E remains uncertain. Bear in mind that some EURUSD charts indicate an unfilled gap at 1.06400.
Trading Implications
For those who entered long positions earlier this week, the 1.06 level (below C) serves as a potential stop-loss level. (remember that unfilled gap at 1.06400)
Additional Considerations
A more conservative approach would involve waiting for price to break above the D peak (1.09200), followed by a retracement, before initiating a buy trade. This strategy may require patience, as it could take several weekly candles (several weeks) for EURUSD to ascend.
Fundamental Analysis
- This bullish analysis contradicts the fundamental outlook for the euro, given the ECB's decision to cut interest rates.
- Interest rate cuts are generally expected to weaken the euro against the dollar, at least until the next ECB announcement scheduled for July 18, 2024.
- Alternatively, this date could mark the beginning of EURUSD's bullish movement (approximately 4 weekly candles from today).
Suggestion
Price action this week will be crucial for further confirmation.
For scalping and intraday trading, i recommend to follow this great timeframe as a guideline.
Disclaimer
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Please conduct your own research and consult a financial advisor before making any trading decisions.
ノート
If the price remains around or slightly above the 0.382 retracement level by the end of June, this would set the stage for a bullish run in July. This aligns with the broader wave 5 structure within the Elliott Wave framework
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