EURUSD was supported by a speech from ECB President Lagarde. C. Lagarde said that a recession is more and more likely but that it will not bring down inflation significantly. This is why Lagarde expects the ECB to raise interest rates further because, in her view, interest rates remain the most effective tool. Speaking on the balance sheet, Lagarde said balance sheet normalization is appropriate but needs to be done in a measured and predictable way so as not to destabilize markets. She also touched on a topic of fiscal policy saying it should be temporary and targeted, and warned that cutting investment levels could hurt growth as supply cannot be replenished.
From a technical standpoint, EURUSD continues to test the 1.04 resistance zone, after an earlier break above the 200 session moving average and a successful retest of that average later. In case we see a break above the 1.04 resistance, the way to the next area of potential resistance – the 1.06 area – will be left open.
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