EURUSD remains tight as the market can take cues from PCE data

The lack of US data last week resulted in lower volatility, benefiting the dollar and treasury yields. Low volatility favors higher yielding currencies in the FX market. The upcoming US PCE data could impact the dollar's performance. Better than expected survey data on Friday revealed a decrease in inflation expectations, causing temporary weakness in the dollar and a rise in EUR/USD. This recovery in EUR/USD may lead to bearish movement next week.

If inflation in the eurozone, particularly in Germany, continues to weaken, the euro could face pressure midweek. Many ECB officials have expressed a preference for a 25 basis point cut next month, which could lead to further easing leading up to the June ECB meeting. In contrast, the May Fed meeting minutes showed a more hawkish approach and lack of confidence in reaching the Fed's 2% inflation target, supporting a stronger US dollar and higher US yields.

The upcoming EU inflation data could cause the Lower German pair to trade lower. This could be further influenced by disappointing PCE inflation. If there is no new swing high at the beginning of the week, it may lead to a bearish move for the rest of the week. A sell-off could occur if the pair drops below 1.0800, while a bullish continuation would require surpassing the recent high of 1.0895 on a daily closing basis.

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EUR/USD edged up slightly during Tuesday's Asian session and is currently trading around 1.0770. Both fundamental and technical outlooks call for caution before looking at the previous day's mild recovery from lows around 1.0730.