EURUSD: PCE determines trading side?
Durable Goods Orders in April were 0.7% higher from the month before, and significantly higher from market forecast of -0.8%. Durable goods orders excluding transportation were standing at 0.4% for the month in April. Michigan Consumer Sentiment final for May was 69.1, higher from market estimate of 67.5, but still lower from the previous month`s 77.2. Michigan 5 year inflation expectations final for May stood at 3%, confirming that consumers in the US are expecting inflation to stay elevated during the course of next five years.
HCOB Manufacturing PMI flash for Germany for May for Germany was standing at 45.4, a bit better from market estimate at 43.1. The same index for the Euro Zone was standing at 47.4, again better from the market's estimate of 46.2. GDP Growth Rate final for Q1 for Germany was -0.2% y/y, without change from the previous post.
Lack of currently significant economic data made the eurusd pair to trade within a relatively short range during the previous week. The currency pair started the week below 1.09, reached the lowest weekly level at 1.0787 and ended it at 1.845. There was no strength for a move above the 1.09 line, which impacted the short reversal during the week. However, the market is still not ready to give up on the path toward the overbought market side. The RSI reached the level of 59, and while the indicator is still moving above the 50 line, implies that the market is still not thinking about the oversold side. Moving average of 50 days started only a modest divergence from MA200 counterpart, implying that the cross might have happened, but it is still not clearly confirmed on the chart. In this sense, some more time is necessary in order to confirm potential for the trend reversal.
The week ahead is bringing US PCE data for April. Considering the current high sensitivity of the market to inflation data, it might be expected some higher volatility during the week. Market showed no strength to push the currency pair toward the next long term resistance line at 1.10, in which sense it reverted a bit toward 1.08 support. This level has been tested on several occasions during the past few weeks, which could be also expected in the week ahead. In case that this level is finally breached to the downside, it will open a path for 1.067 next support line. Still, it should not be expected to come so soon. The market will first test levels around 1.075 and 1.073 lines. On the opposite side, current charts are not showing much potential. Eventually, 1.09 could be tested for one more time, but with lower probability.
Important news to watch during the week ahead are:
Euro: Ifo business Climate for May for Germany, GfK Consumer Confidence for June for Germany, Inflation Rate preliminary for May, Inflation Rate flash for May for the Euro Zone,
USD: CB Consumer Confidence for May, GDP Growth Rate second estimate for Q1, PCE Price Index for April, Personal Income and Personal Spending for April
HCOB Manufacturing PMI flash for Germany for May for Germany was standing at 45.4, a bit better from market estimate at 43.1. The same index for the Euro Zone was standing at 47.4, again better from the market's estimate of 46.2. GDP Growth Rate final for Q1 for Germany was -0.2% y/y, without change from the previous post.
Lack of currently significant economic data made the eurusd pair to trade within a relatively short range during the previous week. The currency pair started the week below 1.09, reached the lowest weekly level at 1.0787 and ended it at 1.845. There was no strength for a move above the 1.09 line, which impacted the short reversal during the week. However, the market is still not ready to give up on the path toward the overbought market side. The RSI reached the level of 59, and while the indicator is still moving above the 50 line, implies that the market is still not thinking about the oversold side. Moving average of 50 days started only a modest divergence from MA200 counterpart, implying that the cross might have happened, but it is still not clearly confirmed on the chart. In this sense, some more time is necessary in order to confirm potential for the trend reversal.
The week ahead is bringing US PCE data for April. Considering the current high sensitivity of the market to inflation data, it might be expected some higher volatility during the week. Market showed no strength to push the currency pair toward the next long term resistance line at 1.10, in which sense it reverted a bit toward 1.08 support. This level has been tested on several occasions during the past few weeks, which could be also expected in the week ahead. In case that this level is finally breached to the downside, it will open a path for 1.067 next support line. Still, it should not be expected to come so soon. The market will first test levels around 1.075 and 1.073 lines. On the opposite side, current charts are not showing much potential. Eventually, 1.09 could be tested for one more time, but with lower probability.
Important news to watch during the week ahead are:
Euro: Ifo business Climate for May for Germany, GfK Consumer Confidence for June for Germany, Inflation Rate preliminary for May, Inflation Rate flash for May for the Euro Zone,
USD: CB Consumer Confidence for May, GDP Growth Rate second estimate for Q1, PCE Price Index for April, Personal Income and Personal Spending for April
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