EUR/USD Nears 7-Month High Amid US Recession Fears

8月5日

EUR/USD Nears 7-Month High Amid US Recession Fears

1. Analysis: Key Scenarios and Expected Movements

• Next Outlook:
  The EUR/USD pair is currently exhibiting an upward trend, with potential fluctuations influenced by growing concerns about the US economy. Expectations have risen for three Federal Reserve rate cuts this year instead of two.
  
  
• Bullish Scenario:
  For a bullish trend to be confirmed, the price needs to stabilize above the pivot line at 1.0917. If this occurs, the pair could target the resistance levels at 1.0997 and potentially 1.1040.
  
  
• Bearish Scenario:
  A bearish trend will be triggered if a 4-hour candle closes below 1.0917, potentially pushing the price down to 1.0862.
  
  
• Key Levels:
  - Pivot Line: 1.0917
  - Resistance Levels: 1.0997, 1.1040, 1.1095
  - Support Levels: 1.0862, 1.0796, 1.0707
  
  
• Today's Expected Range:
  The price is anticipated to fluctuate between the support at 1.0917 and the resistance at 1.1040, with a bearish inclination.
  
  2. Euro Nears 7-Month High
  
  The Euro surged above $1.0965, nearing its highest level in seven months, benefitting from a weaker dollar as investors reacted to disappointing US labor data, sparking recession fears and anticipation of aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts.
  
  Concerns about the US economy have raised expectations for three Federal Reserve rate cuts this year, up from two previously anticipated. Additionally, traders are anticipating at least two rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB) this year, with the next expected in September.
  
  ECB's Stournaras has warned of potential inflation challenges in the Eurozone due to ongoing economic difficulties. Despite an unexpected increase in annual inflation to 2.6% in July, services inflation declined for the first time in three months.
  
  This advanced analysis highlights the dynamic factors influencing the EUR/USD pair and provides a detailed outlook on possible price movements and market scenarios.