GBTC versus BTCUSD (Bitcoin)

2022年11月23日

(1)🔬 Dividing the GBTC price by the BTCUSD price, we have this chart in a downtrend.
This indicates that GBTC has underperformed Bitcoin.

🟢 The price spent most of the time in the green rectangle, threatening to break out several times.
In March 2021, GBTC broke out of this rectangle.

🟣 Projecting this rectangle downwards, in a new purple rectangle, we have a possible target, which culminates exactly in Fibonacci prediction 2.
Price is currently in the middle of the rectangle, testing the 1.516 forecast.

🐂 For a bullish reversal to materialize, price needs to break out of the exponential 55-period Bollinger Bands' bear channel:


(2) 🆚 Bitcoin's MarketCap vs GBTC's MarketCap

📈 MarketCap of Bitcoin:


📈 MarketCap of GBTC:


🧮 If we divide the GBTC marketcap by the Bitcoin marketcap, we have a percentage of 1.95%.
🤔 Question: In the worst case scenario, if GBTC and Genesis go bankrupt, and if Grayscale sells all the Bitcoins it claims to have, what would be the impact on the price of Bitcoin?

(3) 📈 GBTC price



On the diagonal Fibonacci channel, the price touched the -0.5 retracement.
❓ Question 1: On the vertical Fibonacci retracement, will price test the 0.618 retracement at $7.06, stretching wave 5?
❓ Question 2: Or will the price go even deeper, hitting the 0.5 retracement at $3.68?
🐻‍❄️ If this happens, the DMI SMI oscillator could indicate a key moment rarely reached (see green circles).

2022年11月23日

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