BTC Precious Metals Futures Market Correlation Part 3/3

2018年6月12日

So time to explain. This is all started when I read the article about the Third Dimensional Crypto Cartel
manipulating price through futures. After some thought I decided the chart it out.
Although I am not convinced of the futures market oppression, the similarities to BTC from all time high are astounding.

1st chart is current BTC 2nd and 3rd and Gold Futures. This same pattern also appears in Silver and Uranium Futures. I decided to only compare to Gold Futures for the purpose of this example but feel free to chart out those as well. The crazy thing about this pattern is that it took place in 2012-2013 while BTC has been performing the same pattern 2017-2018 so we can rule out World Events or the Global Market hammering in these similar patterns.

Main similarities:
1: Starts a descending triangle from ATH
2: Forms a double bottom breakout
3: Bulltraps on the triangle breakout

Main difference:
The pattern in question on the Gold Futures chart is on a weekly candle while BTC's pattern is on a daily candle.
If I try to chart out this pattern on BTC's weekly chart it is not as visible. I believe this is because of the total amount of price action BTC has lived compared to Gold Futures. Since the Gold market has had a longer lifespan it gives a cleaner look at the weekly chart. In other words in time to come I expect the weekly BTC chart to look more similar to the Gold Futures weekly chart.

What do I expect?
Well, for the last few weeks I have been expecting a leg down on BTC mostly on the RSI following suit and confirming the rejection of the Triangle Breakout Bulltrap. It appears to now be confirmed. Although Gold Futures currently appear to be in a Bullish Breakout Pattern, I do not expect BTC to follow suit immediately.

Everybody thinks that BTC is either going to 500k or 0. I think neither, I think BTC will continue to follow the Gold Futures chart and run relatively flat with low volatility for the coming months. I have been trading BTC will the Gold chart as a reference for the last few weeks and have been doing very well. I will continue to do so until BTC starts to stray away from this Price Action example.