LTCUSD - Litecoin & the break-out
アップデート済
Looking at Litecoin, we just broke upper triangle resistance line. However:
i) on the daily, I see the MACD hesitating a little, and maybe even curving bearishly first;
ii) volume is lacking;
iii) the RSI is in the overbought area;
iv) we still have a horizontal resistance to break before we're in the clear (Fibonacci 23,6% at $170).
All of that makes me discern two major scenarios:
1) We just break-out now: meaning we break the 23,6% Fibonacci at $170, consolidate a little (if any), and are ready to roll.
--> But given the above (i to iv), I believe this might be a too optimistic view (although I do believe a break-out is close of course, albeit somewhat delayed, which would mean we might end up with better entry points).
2) we first have to resolve the points above (i to iv), meaning that there will be some red candles before we can truly attack that 23,6% level at $170.
That being said, the base of the triangle is at 100ish. So that's still a long way to fall. However, given the current bullishness in the market, that might be somewhat of a stretch. $143, perhaps $136 would already make the cut (see the Fibonacci horiztonals for the shorter term in the graph below):
Conclusion:
- I believe we are breaking out. But given points i to iv, we might be in for some downward pressure first, before attacking and breaking the $170 zone.
- Targets are highlighted by the Fibonacci line on the main graph of this post ( $208, $239, $270, $314, $371 (before talking about new all time highs))
i) on the daily, I see the MACD hesitating a little, and maybe even curving bearishly first;
ii) volume is lacking;
iii) the RSI is in the overbought area;
iv) we still have a horizontal resistance to break before we're in the clear (Fibonacci 23,6% at $170).
All of that makes me discern two major scenarios:
1) We just break-out now: meaning we break the 23,6% Fibonacci at $170, consolidate a little (if any), and are ready to roll.
--> But given the above (i to iv), I believe this might be a too optimistic view (although I do believe a break-out is close of course, albeit somewhat delayed, which would mean we might end up with better entry points).
2) we first have to resolve the points above (i to iv), meaning that there will be some red candles before we can truly attack that 23,6% level at $170.
That being said, the base of the triangle is at 100ish. So that's still a long way to fall. However, given the current bullishness in the market, that might be somewhat of a stretch. $143, perhaps $136 would already make the cut (see the Fibonacci horiztonals for the shorter term in the graph below):
Conclusion:
- I believe we are breaking out. But given points i to iv, we might be in for some downward pressure first, before attacking and breaking the $170 zone.
- Targets are highlighted by the Fibonacci line on the main graph of this post ( $208, $239, $270, $314, $371 (before talking about new all time highs))
ノート
So definitely first downward pricing pressure before the uptake. Especially if we look at the daily chart, we still see bearishness, in the chart itself, but also in the MACD and in the RSI.
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