Investors Losing Confidence in NANO - Breakdown Possible

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Hey guys! As you know, I've been bullish on NANO against Bitcoin (BTC) for a while, but since the failed rally, things are starting to look worrying, fundamentally as well. Since the very beginning, exchanges have had trouble implementing the NANO code, and it's starting to really become a headache. I haven't sold off any of my NANO as of yet, but I'm starting to become concerned. Over the last week, big sells have been dominating the order flow, which could suggest that big money is losing confidence in the project and moving on to other coins.

Right now, NANO is at risk of entering a deeper bear trend as the rest of the market rebounds. As you can see, we are in the middle of what could be a nearly endless falling wedge that has an eventual target at the August bottom, in terms of its Bitcoin ratio. If this happens, we may slide down to the $0.75 support (or even below) for a while until we get some positive news. Any sort of further negative news will likely break us down.

However, if we can get some positive news for NANO in the coming weeks, we could see us finally breaking out of the downtrend and sending us on an impulse towards the first major resistance (green X). This isn't really a trade setup, it's just what I'm looking at here. For NANO to remain bullish against Bitcoin, we need to break out of this pesky resistance again with MASSIVE volume. This could easily happen as well, if the stars align. This is really an "up or down" post, but I wanted to get it out of my system, since I'm seeing some worrying things on this pairing.

This is not financial advice. I hope this project succeeds. It would be a shame to see it fade away. It has a lot of promise, but unfortunately its tech is very challenging for whatever reason, and I fear that there are unfixable flaws. Maybe some of you can offer your input, if you're more familiar with coding than I am.

Link to previous NANO analyses at bottom.

-Victor Cobra

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We could also be in a bigger wedge:

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It looks like we have some decent news for NANO - no bug was found. We need to see a convincing push above resistance now. The 2250ish support has held pretty well, despite the selling pressure. Bitcoin needs to stay strong though, ideally.

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VERY close to breaking out here. The breakdown idea will likely be invalidated if that happens and we will begin a big impulse. Let’s see. The market is showing some true growth here, and it looks healthy for once.

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And we’ve broken out of the descending resistance again! Good sign for NANO. We’ve also made it back above the $1 zone. The true resistance lies at $1.10. I would look for a bigger impulse wave over the next few days, as long as Bitcoin continues to look good and doesn’t drop below 4K soon.

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Just had a big sell come in. It’s psossible this was another fakeout. NANO needs to hold above the broken resistance.

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Yup, another fakeout. Still haven't had a total breakdown yet...but it's very possible, especially if the market decides to make another leg down. A number of signals told me the bottom has been in, but if the selloff today has any significant follow through, we may indeed see new lows, even though it wouldn't make much sense given the present structure of many coins in the market. Then again, crypto definitely doesn't always make sense, just like human beings don't make sense.

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Just want to update this chart before I take my break for the weekend - looks like we've broken out of the resistance again, but it's not convincing yet. We'd ideally need to close this weekly candle outside of the downtrend. This is something we have yet to accomplish. If NANO bulls can do this (and they have 3 days to do it) then we should be good to finally break out of consolidation to the upside. If we get rejected again here, we will need to consolidate longer or drop further to gain any momentum.

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We've slid out of the first triangle sideways with hardly any volume, which isn't a great sign. We also have the bigger triangle resistance ahead. The market needs to remain mid-term bullish if we are to avoid breaking down from here, in my opinion.

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If we do manage to clear the second resistance (around 2600), we should make another attempt at 3000.

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There's been a pretty large sell wall on Binance today, but it looks fake to me. Not many sell orders above it, and lots of buys stacked below it. This is the kind of sell wall that is actually bullish in nature, as it means someone is trying to accumulate without letting the price move up.

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And immediately after I wrote that, the wall got lifted and we're rising.

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Hmm, seems like the selling pressure is still there. Still looks worrying. A breakdown from this current support could be very violent. I wouldn't like to see it, given how much people believe in this project, but the bear market can be brutal, and many projects will get wiped out, leaving the ones with the most capital and exposure to survive and improve.

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If we do break down, I'd like to see some pretty big buys, which could create a nice V-shaped bottom, from which we can lift off and finally exit the downtrend. It's important to note that $0.75 has still held since August. A loss of that psychological level would be really bad for NANO, but sometimes at the end of accumulation, price can briefly go below the previously established support.

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As you can see, the target for a breakdown is all the way down in the 1700 area. If buyers manage to step in soon, we can target 2600 at least. Unfortunately, big sells have been dominating the order book for a while, which indicates big holders are unloading their positions.

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Top of the bigger wedge target, if bulls hold the line

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Making some significant attempts to break the bigger wedge on heavy volume after my target was reached. If we make another attempt to break the wedge, I think we will probably see a rather large impulse wave up towards 3300.