Here is the weekend look going into Oct 18th to 22nd. Last week offered some very interesting price action. Monday and Tues started weak with price pulling back to 14588, but then reversed on Wed after the Fed minutes and finished the week strong. On Thur & Fri price exploded higher took out the key 15001 pivot and finished the week at the top of the neutral zone right at the 55 sma.
Last week in addition to my weekend look analysis I posted two charts offering both a bullish and bearish thesis. By the end of the week my 3 drives scenario was negated as price took out 15001 level and the downward trendline. Going into this week I will be watching for bullish follow through. The challenge is that price has pushed into another area of resistance with both the 618 fib and the 55 SMA forming the wall. The good news is that if price clears these levels there is a good chance we revisit the ATH. The bad news is that if price stalls out here it could easily roll over and head back down or trade sideways. My preferred setup is a modest pull back into the 15000 zone then a bullish push back up through the moving average and fib resistance. That would would setup up for a nice move higher going into the the heart of earnings season and the end of Oct.
I have broken down both the bull and the bear case in my chart notes. As always price action rules the day. Generally I will remain bullish above the 14844 level (bottom of the neutral zone). Below 14844 I will start to feel bearish again. Note the dotted black lines on the chart identify levels of support below and targets above.
I will update this chart throughout the week as things play out. Happy trading.
Notes:
Monday... Industrial production #s
Tuesday... Housing starts & NFLX earnings
Wednesday...TSLA earnings & Oil inventories
Thursday... Jobless claims
Fed heads talking all week.
**** The perspective of my analysis that of a long biased trader. This means I am looking for uptrend confirmation before taking long trades. If the market is correction, at resistance or in a down trend I build cash and wait. I rarely short. ****
Last week in addition to my weekend look analysis I posted two charts offering both a bullish and bearish thesis. By the end of the week my 3 drives scenario was negated as price took out 15001 level and the downward trendline. Going into this week I will be watching for bullish follow through. The challenge is that price has pushed into another area of resistance with both the 618 fib and the 55 SMA forming the wall. The good news is that if price clears these levels there is a good chance we revisit the ATH. The bad news is that if price stalls out here it could easily roll over and head back down or trade sideways. My preferred setup is a modest pull back into the 15000 zone then a bullish push back up through the moving average and fib resistance. That would would setup up for a nice move higher going into the the heart of earnings season and the end of Oct.
I have broken down both the bull and the bear case in my chart notes. As always price action rules the day. Generally I will remain bullish above the 14844 level (bottom of the neutral zone). Below 14844 I will start to feel bearish again. Note the dotted black lines on the chart identify levels of support below and targets above.
I will update this chart throughout the week as things play out. Happy trading.
Notes:
Monday... Industrial production #s
Tuesday... Housing starts & NFLX earnings
Wednesday...TSLA earnings & Oil inventories
Thursday... Jobless claims
Fed heads talking all week.
**** The perspective of my analysis that of a long biased trader. This means I am looking for uptrend confirmation before taking long trades. If the market is correction, at resistance or in a down trend I build cash and wait. I rarely short. ****
コメント:
Tapping the 618 Fib right now. Lets see how it reacts. If the fib is ignored that would be very bullish. Potential move to 15250 then 15400.
コメント:
Wow what a week so far. Price complete ignored the 618 fib as well as the completions zone of the ab=cd move. As I noted above this was very bullish. When fibs are being ignored it tells me that the market is very emotional and can make out sized moves in either direction. We are witnessing the power of the commission free trading and the world trading 24/7 from their phones. This week everyone dumped their shorts and when long with a few clicks. Price is not sitting at the 786 fib where it has stalled a bit, but it feels as if ATHs are now the magnet for price. But we will see. The 10 year yield is up again.
