Potential swing trade long for NZD/USD
アップデート済
We've seen a nice pullback on NZD/USD into a prior volume cluster, false break of 0.62 with a doji and a bullish divergence with the RSI (2).
Assuming US CPI doesn't surprise to the upside, this looks like a decent swing trade long setup. Although a risk-on vibe and broad USD weakness is required to make it work.
Take note that 1-day implied volatility is 2.5x its 20-day average, which is the highest among FX majors. The NZ-US CESI spread is also diminishing to show economic data from New Zealand is faring better than the US on a relative basis.
A break beneath the doji low invalidates the bullish bias.
Assuming US CPI doesn't surprise to the upside, this looks like a decent swing trade long setup. Although a risk-on vibe and broad USD weakness is required to make it work.
Take note that 1-day implied volatility is 2.5x its 20-day average, which is the highest among FX majors. The NZ-US CESI spread is also diminishing to show economic data from New Zealand is faring better than the US on a relative basis.
A break beneath the doji low invalidates the bullish bias.
ノート
A second long-legged doji formed on the daily chart to further suggest support around last week's low. And given the kiwi held up despite strong US inflation keeps the potential for a move higher alive. A fly in the ointment is the potential for risk off should a regional conflict erupt across the Middle East. But whilst prices hold above last week's ow, the bias remains for an initial move higher.
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