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QQQ Early Topping Behavior

Short-term momentum is stretched so watch for a potential pullback to $608 then $603 if selling follows through

1. Price vs MTD VWAP

MTD VWAP ≈ $603.7, with +1σ ≈ $611 & +2σ ≈ $613
QQQ is pressing the upper (+2σ) edge of the VWAP envelope & that’s statistically extended
Historically, price rarely sustains above this zone without cooling off toward +1σ ($608-$609) or the VWAP itself ($603-$604)
Overbought short-term; risk of mean reversion if momentum fades

2. Volume Profile

Volume into the close rose sharply, but without broad range expansion
That kind of volume spike after an extended move often means distribution (profit-taking at highs) rather than fresh breakout energy
The closing volume spike without strong follow-through suggests distribution (smart money selling into strength)
That’s also characteristic of the transition from Wave 5 to wave a (meaning the first corrective down-leg may already be starting)
Likely aiming for $588-$590 first & potentially $532 over the next 4-6 weeks if the full correction unfolds

3. RSI (15m)
RSI ≈ 68 & curling lower from overbought

A bearish cross of RSI below its signal line after sitting near 70 is a classic short-term momentum-loss trigger
Supports the idea of a pullback or consolidation within 1-2 sessions

4. Stochastic Oscillator

Fast %K & %D have both rolled over sharply (≈ 34 & 18)
Coming off multiple overbought resets above 80, this steep drop signals short-term exhaustion with traders locking gains

5. Intraday Structure

You can see bearish divergence forming where price neared ATHs (~$613.18) while RSI & Stoch made lower highs
That divergence plus rejection at +2σ VWAP = early topping behavior on the 15m timeframe

Start of wave a