Real Estate Market Cycle
The "Real Estate Market Cycle" is made up of four distinct phases.
Recovery
Expansion
Hyper Supply
Recession
There isn't an exact length of period of time each phase must last, but taken as a whole, the entire cycle averages 17 to 18 years from peak to peak.
Looking at the previous cycle (1989-2007) we can use Fibonacci and geometry to see where we currently are in the cycle and predict where we are going.
Currently, it appears that we are in the relatively early stages of hyper supply. This phase began with the passage of the Trump tax cuts and fuel was thrown on the fire with the capitulation of the Fed following the Christmas '18 blood bath in stocks.
The hyper supply phase can be lengthy but can also be short.
Absolute worst case, we have a year left in the hyper supply phase.
But more likely is we have 3+ years remaining. Somewhere between 3 and 7 years from now.
Recovery
Expansion
Hyper Supply
Recession
There isn't an exact length of period of time each phase must last, but taken as a whole, the entire cycle averages 17 to 18 years from peak to peak.
Looking at the previous cycle (1989-2007) we can use Fibonacci and geometry to see where we currently are in the cycle and predict where we are going.
Currently, it appears that we are in the relatively early stages of hyper supply. This phase began with the passage of the Trump tax cuts and fuel was thrown on the fire with the capitulation of the Fed following the Christmas '18 blood bath in stocks.
The hyper supply phase can be lengthy but can also be short.
Absolute worst case, we have a year left in the hyper supply phase.
But more likely is we have 3+ years remaining. Somewhere between 3 and 7 years from now.
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