h pattern and my green box from earlier

2021年2月18日

Update before close, an h pattern has formed. If this breaks that 58-60 zone box, I'm bailing on this. Be very careful what happens overnight here. Pull in your size, there is no guarantee on a short here but aside from the bearish market and tape on the stock today, the following 2 things I observed:

a. RIOT has decoupled from BTCs price reads - BTC is not significantly down at all but RIOT is.
b. The h pattern is a pretty reliable stock/forex pattern for a bearish turn over. I'm not going to trade it until it breaks $58, perhaps it could be too late by morning anyway. The only reason I'm not going short is because the market itself has had a down day overall, so we might just pick back up with business as usual tomorrow.

Be careful overnight. If you long on it, hedge your position some here. Pull in size if you are able to.

2021年2月19日

ノート

After hours the stock sold off to 57.5 before they shut down AH trading at 6pm (mst). It reopened at midnight where BTC has run up and broke through its all time high to 53300, RIOT gaps up to $69.420 range and floated around for the rest of the night. They are buying it up some here near the open.

Keep in mind:

BTC movements after hours are pretty valid moves, it trades all the time all over the world.

RIOT moves overnight are far less valid, yes the price has moved but the volume is far lower than regular trading hours movement.

RIOT was attached to BTC movement at about a 5:1 ratio before when comparing percentages of movement. The way it was previously correlated over the last week would've put is price over 110 right now. I say this because I want you to be very careful from now on. This gap up does not mean business as usual. We could very well sell off on the open to yesterdays close, market makers might even push selling further down to blow out some stops and scare out the short term traders. Fundamentally this stock is not worth anywhere near its current price. We are at this price range because of buyers. This does not mean it cant go up or hold here. Look at Tesla. The price of something can very often have little to do with its value.