S&P 500 10 000$

2019年7月13日

Hi all many of you that see this might think that its a total nonsense but I try to be radically open minded when it comes to today's world. Since recently many of the economists have been thinking that ZIRP and NIRP are absolutely impossible even not worth discussing but as we can see half world is full with negative yield bonds etc. We are living in interesting times something that people from China might think as a curse but in my opinion we can capitalize and make fortunes if we are on the right side above the consensus. History teaches us that there are patterns that emerge everywhere around us but that can't be taken as possible future outcome. On the chart you see SP500 and overlayed EFFR starting from 1970. I have marked with RED arrows RATE CUTS and with GREEN arrows RATE HIKES and what impact that have had on stock market. GREEN VERTICALS show BULL signals where NEGATIVE MACD turns POSSITIVE on a M timeframe. In most of the cases when MONTHLY MACD turns possitive from negative territory the outcome have been much more favorable than anticipated and many good things have happened. What I believe will be the case is that FED is going to cut in JULY it will going too cut few more times in order not to disapoint markets and extend business economic cycle. FED has the balls to do so thanks to deflationary threats and low inflaton. I belive rate cuts will boost inflation in the mid-long term when CB will be pushed to HIKE again in order to cool down the economy when that happens a rate CUT might follow which will trigger next financial crisis. If we stick to history pattern from 1995 the cycle have been extended with 5 more year where thanks to rate cuts SP have gained more than 200% for 5 years. Being radically open minded might help you be on the right side of the equation and capitalize huge huge gains.

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