US 10y2y yield curve and the S&P500. What's next?
アップデート済
I see many people expecting a massive crash because the yield curve has inverted, but they forget that stocks fell as the yield curve was inverting, something that didn't happen in the previous times. Before the earlier crashes, stocks rose before the inversion and kept growing for a bit after the inversion.
In 1989 stocks didn't even fall after the 10y2y curve fell below 0. That inversion happened two years after the 1987 crash, and we have a similar situation this time. We had an inversion before the Covid crash, and now, two years after the Covid crash, we are having another. However, this time, we've already had a 25% correction on the S&P500.
Although I believe we will have a recession and used to think it would be gruesome, I am starting to feel things won't be as bad as many think. It would be very odd to have a second crash after the March 2020 crash, as many investors still expect a similar correction, making it less likely. Everyone also knows the Fed will eventually be forced to cut rates and return to QE, creating a market crash less likely. The market is like a junky that wants more QE and low rates, even if that would come at the cost of short-term pain, as the market is forward-looking and is already anticipating that Central banks will support demands. They will have to, as governments won't be able to fund themselves in any other way.
At the same time, we must not forget many structural forces other than the Fed, like stock buybacks, indexation, passive investing, cheap & easy access, bank money/credit creation, and foreign investment inflows in the US. Of course, we definitely shouldn't forget how strong the US economy is, having some of the best companies worldwide.
It feels like 2000-2013 was like getting out of the 1968-1982 period: massive consolidation and considerable changes in the structure of markets. From 1982 until 2000, the market rallied by 1275%, with very few significant corrections. None was more prominent than 40%, and the largest was similar to the Covid crash. We are nine years into this expansion and have rallied only 200% from the previous highs. Therefore I don't see why we should expect another massive correction soon, right after we've had a 20%, a 35%, and a 25% correction over the last 3.5 years. I think the only reason for a crash would be the Fed raising rates above 3.5%, which I see as nearly impossible.
Of course, I am not saying another dip is impossible. If the SPX tops around 4350-4400, I can see us making another low, only to scare longs and trap shorts and send it much higher. This idea is more about not getting stuck in some doom porn and seeing that markets can go up even when things are not expected to go well or aren't going well.
In 1989 stocks didn't even fall after the 10y2y curve fell below 0. That inversion happened two years after the 1987 crash, and we have a similar situation this time. We had an inversion before the Covid crash, and now, two years after the Covid crash, we are having another. However, this time, we've already had a 25% correction on the S&P500.
Although I believe we will have a recession and used to think it would be gruesome, I am starting to feel things won't be as bad as many think. It would be very odd to have a second crash after the March 2020 crash, as many investors still expect a similar correction, making it less likely. Everyone also knows the Fed will eventually be forced to cut rates and return to QE, creating a market crash less likely. The market is like a junky that wants more QE and low rates, even if that would come at the cost of short-term pain, as the market is forward-looking and is already anticipating that Central banks will support demands. They will have to, as governments won't be able to fund themselves in any other way.
At the same time, we must not forget many structural forces other than the Fed, like stock buybacks, indexation, passive investing, cheap & easy access, bank money/credit creation, and foreign investment inflows in the US. Of course, we definitely shouldn't forget how strong the US economy is, having some of the best companies worldwide.
It feels like 2000-2013 was like getting out of the 1968-1982 period: massive consolidation and considerable changes in the structure of markets. From 1982 until 2000, the market rallied by 1275%, with very few significant corrections. None was more prominent than 40%, and the largest was similar to the Covid crash. We are nine years into this expansion and have rallied only 200% from the previous highs. Therefore I don't see why we should expect another massive correction soon, right after we've had a 20%, a 35%, and a 25% correction over the last 3.5 years. I think the only reason for a crash would be the Fed raising rates above 3.5%, which I see as nearly impossible.
Of course, I am not saying another dip is impossible. If the SPX tops around 4350-4400, I can see us making another low, only to scare longs and trap shorts and send it much higher. This idea is more about not getting stuck in some doom porn and seeing that markets can go up even when things are not expected to go well or aren't going well.
ノート
''Of course, I am not saying another dip is impossible. If the SPX tops around 4350-4400, I can see us making another low, only to scare longs and trap shorts and send it much higher. This idea is more about not getting stuck in some doom porn and seeing that markets can go up even when things are not expected to go well or aren't going well.''I wrote this right before the market topped at 4300 and then made a new low, yet it failed to go much lower. Now we are in some melt-up phase, and I don't know where it stops. Maybe it tops around 4350-4400, or it doesn't anytime soon. I can see stocks rallying continuously until the end of Q1 2023 and even the end of Q3 2023, so be careful with your shorts and understand the Fed is trapped here. The market is already indicating that deflation is coming and that the Fed will be forced to cut.
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