SPX500 - Another Freaky Friday?

アップデート済

Details in the video regarding my trading plan for the day. It's quite clear where bears and bulls want to see this thing go but nothing is decided just yet.

ノート

Possibly a larger bear pennant - looks good as of now. Red line needs to hold today

ノート

bear flag adjusted, if correct they break the last low and come up slowly. This should take up the rest of the day

ノート

Pennant still looks fine, they are pushing it hard. Expecting the rest of the day to deflate for D. Not sure this pattern will complete today or Tuesday. The pattern is invalid if they get above A which is 3816 on this chart (spy and other spx futures charts will be different)

ノート

ism numbers missed, no coincidence

ノート

looking good for the bears, this is the likely path for triangle moves

ノート

Looks like D was a straight line down, bearish. A break below 3740 and the pattern is over and we go down. I expect one more up for E, then down.

ノート

new chart

ノート

Triangle with an overshoot of E should be done here. If wrong, 3618 will be taken out. Staying short, maybe not smart.

ノート

correction "3816 will be taken out"

ノート

Although they broke above A, I'm going to hold shorts.
If I'm wrong, so be it, but I see many corrective patterns on the major stocks - AAPL AMZN etc. Also, BTC looks to be setting up for a down move before next week - a risk off indication in my opinion. This is my choice and it could be VERY wrong. We'll see next week. Have a wonderful 4th!

ノート

maybe not a pennant but a triple correction instead. All of these are difficult to trade, but in this case it looks corrective, not impulsive so I still expect more downside.