Risk-Off, 13th October 2022

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➤ Minor down day in US indices. Pre-market was firmly positive until the PPI (Producer Price Index) numbers were released. It showed persistent inflation in the costs of production. These costs can be passed on to consumers and therefore feeds into CPI/Consumer inflation numbers.

➤ With CPI numbers coming out Thursday/today, we should expect a jump in volatility. I have no idea what the inflation number will be but there are bullish signs that I am willing to take some risk for a potential upside move.

➤ I further reduced my remaining short NASDAQ position to -10% and added long exposure of +40% with STOXX50 and German DAX. An overall small +30% long exposure. I think this is a sensible level of risk use given market conditions. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction.

➤ Conclusion: I'm risk-on for a move higher but also risk-off by taking a lower exposure than previous days. Manage your risks.
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