SPY Daily Commentary

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Happy Tuesday. Last week we had a very nice wedge formation that broke down and has become a descending triangle. This week seems set to either confirm or reverse a nice descending triangle in formation.

How it looks right now:
1) Interesting time Pattern around daily 200SMA

- 26 May the market broke the 200SMA up, 11 June there was a retest of the line. It came up short, which meant the bulls were not ready to let it go.

- Now at 26 June, there's a clean close under the 200SMA, bulls were not able to float the market above.

5/26/2020 - 6/11/2020 :: 16 Days :: 8.21% peak, 13 Days
6/11/2020 -6/26/2020 :: 15 Days :: 4.11% peak, 5 days
6/26/2020 - 7/10/2020 :: 14 Days :: 2.01% peak (305.45) , 3 days (?)

- I think it is possible we see one more bounce over 2 weeks before a bigger rollover into the 200 SMA. This is all theory though, but it is a pattern that can be noticed.

2) Descending Wedge formation
- This formation occurred after a wedge break on the 26th. Descending wedges are generally made after continual pushing downward. Imagine a ball bouncing, bouncing less and less high, until it stops.

3) 200SMA Support bounce
- Closed Friday under the 200SMA daily. Bulls saved the market from a follow through close. Back to patiently waiting for the bears for now. Closing daily above is more bullish than closing below.

4) Unfilled gaps
- 3 gaps to the north side
310.51-311.61
315.64-317.16
325.85-332.58

- 2 gaps on the south side
296.69-295.63
291.75-286.28

5) Confluence of indicators
- Crossed BB 3 days ago. Have yet to under the deviation line
- Daily MACD is still down on rising strength
- Klinger (volume & price) crossed the Zero line 23 June and are on a down slope.
- Under 20 SMA since 24 June, closed under 200 SMA 26 June

So what to make of all this?

Bull case
1) Stay above the 200 SMA. 301.37
2) Solidly capture 305 hourly at least, then work towards 307.5
3) Ride back up to the 20SMA. 310.74

Resistance levels
304.75 ish
305
(Pre-Market) 305.76
307.5
308.08

Bear case
1) Start closing 15min below 302.5, then hourly below 301.45
2) Keep closing under 300
4) Get to heavy support level of 296.26

Support levels
(Pre-Market) 303.63
303
302.2
301.85
301.45
300
299.3

If this helps you like and follow the chart all day. Ill be giving updates as they show up! Getting feedback helps a lot. Thanks for taking the time to read. Good luck out there traders!

ノート

304 was significant yesterday, and will probably prove to be today as well.

ノート

if bulls can stay above 304 that will buy them time to get to try and get to 305

ノート

Theyre working to capture 304.5. there should be pushback at 304.78 & 305. how much rejection will give an idea to the bear strength today

ノート

If bulls cap 305, the next target will be premarket high of 305.75ish

ノート

Bears could hold under 305
Next stop 305.75

ノート

whats above 305.75?

306.33 from june 25
307 from june 24

ノート

bulls are looking a little exhausted. fist hour in the books.
bulls have a flag set up, could pullback to 304.61 and channel surf for a little bit before trying for 306.

ノート

also, longer they stay above 305.33 the more likely theyll push sooner than later. otherwise its gonna be time to look for a mid morning pivot.

ノート

they shot pretty high and i was taking a look back, noticing there was a tiny little gap between 25 & 26 june.
306.35-306.93

the last candle high was 306.63.

will bulls try to fill the last little 30 cents? or say "thats close enough?"
the next two 5 min candles will be telling.

ノート

bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-29/asia-stocks-set-to-track-u-s-gains-on-better-data-markets-wrap

The climb is quite impressive today. Kinda curious if its just show to maintain "Best quarter in 22 years" award.

307 was poked through, 307.5 should have resistance for a little.

bears tried to push under 306.6 a few times, but couldnt beat the bulls. sure the bears are just happy to have gotten out of the short squeeze at the end of yesterday.

ノート

over 307.5, 308.1 should form a rejection area.

getting over 309 today will bring the tend outside the descending wedge. which could usher in more bulls.

ノート

307.43 is a resistance line from 25-26 after hours. see if it relives its purpose.

ノート

306.33 is the first level bears will need to capture on the way down.

ノート

if its a chop shop above 306.33 what can be expected? higher push from the bulls. closing under, staying under will lead to a retest of most recent breakout areas.

ノート

bears struggling to bring it under 306.3. thats a sign bears still want to go higher.

ノート

Took the bears 25 mins to break that support. Next support level will be 305.75.

ノート

306.33 will be a slight resistance . bulls are trying to retest now

ノート

Hourly, bulls have a nice flag formed. 80/20 rule, they should push higher.

ノート

307.43 is still holding as resistance. not a big pushback though.
There is actually a "cup and handle" forming on the 5 & 15 min chart. which is usually a pattern for higher.
where to?
there a resistance level around 308.08

ノート

last hour anything can happen.

if the bulls can hold 307 for a few candles, there will be a cup and handle ready for a take off.

ノート

Well theres the take off.

sky's the limit. 310 should form some resistance