Break, possible recapture, of the 2008-2016 uptrend line

2019年12月19日

In my last post i was stating i was expecting to see a break of the trendline starting from the lows of 2009 and 2016 that we broke in Q4 of last year. Today we had a break of that trendline with what seems like conviction. Looking for a confirmation and then a retest at some point. I don't want to count my chickens too early here but it looks like the start of a parabolic move for the indices, a recapture of this trend line is huge in my opinion. The head and shoulders i mentioned could still be in play if we do retest, and subsequently fail to break out. If we do safely get above this trend line i will be sufficiently convinced that a correction is not coming any time soon until the next macro event (trade, economy, repo market, credit crisis) which honestly could come out of nowhere to smoke everyone down, so keep your head on a swivel.

BUT, keep in mind we still haven't broke out of the top of the channel on the hourly. Overall we're bullish until we're not. Still holding my puts and have a target of $322.50.

I'm also adding the same weekly chart which has not shown a break out and is still within the ascending wedge.

ALSO - Be advised that SPY apparently was to have an ex dividend payout tomorrow. If that is correct we will most likely open about $1.20-$1.50 lower on the underlying.

Be advised: This is not trading advice. This is based purely off of TA and is not a trading idea.

2019年12月20日

トレード終了: 利益確定目標に到達

Target hit, all longs closed out for the weekend.

SPX and ES both hit 3225+. Spy was lagging in price due to the dividend payment over night.