The premise: SPY and the major US stock markets in general seem to be disconnected from the real state of the world's economy. This can't Iast long. So, I decided to toy with the idea that the true state of the economy is captured in the world various stock exchanges combined. So, is there a way that a world economy indicator could be built to plot the true economic trend and then be predictive?
Of course, I do not have the data to build such an index but the blue line shown in this chart is my attempt to capture the world's stock exchange trend (mood). It is based on weighted averages of several world indices. It seems to say that the US stock markets (SPY in this case) is diverging from the world's macro trend right now and...
...Look at what happened last time SPY diverged from this indicator!
Of course this indicator is entirely made up so, take this with a grain of salt. Also, a surprise stimulus from Washington could mix up the cards but...nevertheless I thought it was an idea worth sharing and... an indicator worth monitoring...
Disclaimer: The above is not an investment advice. It is merely an opinion and I share it for your entertainment only. Do your own due diligence and above all, trade safely and stay safe!
Of course, I do not have the data to build such an index but the blue line shown in this chart is my attempt to capture the world's stock exchange trend (mood). It is based on weighted averages of several world indices. It seems to say that the US stock markets (SPY in this case) is diverging from the world's macro trend right now and...
...Look at what happened last time SPY diverged from this indicator!
Of course this indicator is entirely made up so, take this with a grain of salt. Also, a surprise stimulus from Washington could mix up the cards but...nevertheless I thought it was an idea worth sharing and... an indicator worth monitoring...
Disclaimer: The above is not an investment advice. It is merely an opinion and I share it for your entertainment only. Do your own due diligence and above all, trade safely and stay safe!
