Decision Time

2020年11月14日

Will we finally break out of the megaphone pattern we have been experiencing to the upside, or will we reverse back to the downside following some lite buying? Something to keep an eye on! It's decision time for SPY and other major indices right now.

2020年11月16日

ノート

Since it seems this post has made it to the front page - Make sure to give me a follow! I value quality over quantity & won't waste your time with unactionable / esoteric / spam ideas.

Some supplemental analysis about our current environment:
I think we are in a scenario right now, where, despite the upwardly sloping resistance level, I think we could see sustained highs - a scenario that is at least as likely as another selloff.

1.) PMI and NMI are extremely fundamentally bullish for the US economy, and businesses that have been operating under pandemic conditions will continue to do so - in other words adaptation has largely blunted continued economic stress. This isn't true for all industries aka accommodation & food service, but net net we have less business sensitibity to the virus now than we did in march.

2.) The major volatility events that had hedges winding up into the end of this year have largely passed - Earnings season and the Election. Hedges will continue to be unwound, leading to a virtuous buy spiral.

I think continued deterioration in COVID conditions will have a recognizable but ultimately limited impact going forward. If you're concerned about your long positions, short some COVID - susceptible stocks to hedge your book, like food services, REITS, and Hospitability / Gaming

2020年11月16日

ノート

At the very least, if you are looking to short up here, wait for some signs of a trend reversal on the daily chart using Heiken ashi candles.