SPY price action update (Trend break finally?)
SPY closed below structure (support) after a very bullish candle that was formed above structure (not resistance again) on November 20th.
Note today's daily candle closing back below structure is also an indecision doji that was formed inside the previous candle (inside bar candle pattern).
Added confluences:
-Price action (candles) care squeezing into a rising wedge (bearish) right at resistance, as well as a weekly supply zone.
-SPY's price action is also trading near the longterm downtrend resistance zone formed back on 07/27/23. (3rd Touch).
-Although the previous 4 days have been bullish candles, volume has been steadily decreasing day after day, possibly indicating weakness in buyers at the area.
-Today’s doji inside bar marks the lowest daily candle volume since August 14th, 2023.
-RSI is exiting overextended overbought level and reentering RSI range.
-MACD histogram is also indicating weakness in buyers as histogram is starting to curl downward.
-(Not a confluence yet) Waiting for stochastic oscillator to exit overbought and reenter range to indicate a trend change to the downside.
-LAST BUT NEVER LEAST THEE GREATEST CONFLUENCE OF ALL (The JEANIUS Indicator is alerting a sell combo signal (Supply + Larkuidity Sweep)
Trade IDEA:
I am watching for SPY to not only form a bearish candle breaking and holding below today’s low and 11/20/23’s low, but I am also watching for a break below the long standing uptrend support zone that began back on 10/27/23. In addition to the rising wedge breaking down on the 4H chart. Once these ideas play out and SPY begins to form a lower high on the smaller timeframes, I will look for sell opportunities to the downside to close the gap between $446.09 - $441.33. There is also a support zone at $438.03 - $436.90 that was created after the CHOCH (change of character/structure aka trend change from one direction to another).
NOTE: The safest indicator of bearishness is a daily candle close below the more recent pivot in this strong uptrend at $448.12.
Note today's daily candle closing back below structure is also an indecision doji that was formed inside the previous candle (inside bar candle pattern).
Added confluences:
-Price action (candles) care squeezing into a rising wedge (bearish) right at resistance, as well as a weekly supply zone.
-SPY's price action is also trading near the longterm downtrend resistance zone formed back on 07/27/23. (3rd Touch).
-Although the previous 4 days have been bullish candles, volume has been steadily decreasing day after day, possibly indicating weakness in buyers at the area.
-Today’s doji inside bar marks the lowest daily candle volume since August 14th, 2023.
-RSI is exiting overextended overbought level and reentering RSI range.
-MACD histogram is also indicating weakness in buyers as histogram is starting to curl downward.
-(Not a confluence yet) Waiting for stochastic oscillator to exit overbought and reenter range to indicate a trend change to the downside.
-LAST BUT NEVER LEAST THEE GREATEST CONFLUENCE OF ALL (The JEANIUS Indicator is alerting a sell combo signal (Supply + Larkuidity Sweep)
Trade IDEA:
I am watching for SPY to not only form a bearish candle breaking and holding below today’s low and 11/20/23’s low, but I am also watching for a break below the long standing uptrend support zone that began back on 10/27/23. In addition to the rising wedge breaking down on the 4H chart. Once these ideas play out and SPY begins to form a lower high on the smaller timeframes, I will look for sell opportunities to the downside to close the gap between $446.09 - $441.33. There is also a support zone at $438.03 - $436.90 that was created after the CHOCH (change of character/structure aka trend change from one direction to another).
NOTE: The safest indicator of bearishness is a daily candle close below the more recent pivot in this strong uptrend at $448.12.
Dennis Butler Jr.
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