Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for June 12, 2025

🔮 Nightly SPY / SPX Scenarios for June 12, 2025 🔮

🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍

💱 Dollar Slides on Trade Truce Hopes & Fed Outlook
The U.S. dollar dropped 0.4%—its lowest level since April 22—after President Trump signaled flexibility on a July 8 trade deadline and U.S.–China talks showed renewed progress, boosting expectations for Fed rate cuts

📊 S&P Shiller CAPE Hints at Overvaluation Risk
Stocks and bonds rallied following rebound, but valuation metrics flash caution: the S&P 500 now sits in the 94th percentile of Shiller CAPE, and equity risk premium has dropped to zero. Analysts warn these levels often precede corrections

🛢️ Oil Holds at Seven-Week Highs
Oil prices remain near seven-week highs (~$66–67/barrel), supported by gradual OPEC+ output increases and hopes that easing trade tensions will aid demand

📈 CPI Cools Again, Bonds Climb
U.S. consumer inflation rose just 0.1% in May (2.4% YoY), easing expectations for tighter Fed policy. Consequently, Treasury yields softened and bond markets outperformed equities

📊 Key Data Releases 📊
📅 Thursday, June 12:

8:30 AM ET – Producer Price Index (May)
An early gauge of inflation at the wholesale level—may reinforce the cooling trend seen in CPI.

8:30 AM ET – Initial & Continuing Jobless Claims
Weekly updates on unemployment filings. Key to monitor for labor-market tightening or softening.

⚠️ Disclaimer:
This report is for educational and informational purposes only—it does not constitute financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.

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