Concerning possibility of overall market

2022年6月3日

I multiplied spy, dow and nasdaq together while divided by US10Y to get an overall look at the market trend. I noticed this potential bear market pattern that the pullback we're in could follow.

• First there's the orange channels that aren't as steep, it tries to break out of it and sometimes succeeds but is a fake out.
  
  
• Then the stoch hits below 20, levels only seen previously in bear markets on this chart, apart from 1994 but the data might be too young to be useful there.
  
  
• Then it starts to break the blue support lines and even breaks the orange down channel.
  
  
• Then a new down channel is made, the red one that is steeper and is drawn from the first pullback as the bottom and the last peak as the top resistance.
  
  
• It then finally bottoms out as it hits the red channel a few times and a new uptrend is formed.
  
  
• The first confirmation of the reversal is the breakout of the red channel and a follow through the orange channel bottom.
  
  

The red trajectory is the worst possible scenario because the thick blue support would be incredibly strong support I believe. Possible support could be found "early" at the thick dark blue line.

If we can hold support here right now and break the orange channel by Oct-Nov then this bear pattern would be negated and we could see new highs.

This trajectory can be inaccurate because of the lack of data for the down trend. Largely the bottom of the red channel is more of a guess.

Summer seems like a critical time, also the big drops in bear markets previously happened in Aug-Oct so time is running out fast.