SPY Daily Update: Year end targets revisited

2023年9月30日

Months ago I predicted that SPY would finish the year at the level of performance of the opening month of January 2023. That would be 412.20 (February 2 pivot high), which would be 8.99% performance for the year.

I still see SPY hitting that level, but according to my chart, that may occur earlier. I have October 30 as a current target, which leaves the rest of the fourth quarter for a potential seasonal rally. I don’t have a year end target, but an educated guess would be the pivot B on the right side, around the vicinity of 420, which would be at 11% target for the year.

The current scenario would be for a gap fill attempt to 438.43 during the first week of October (consistent with my other posted daily chart, and budget resolution week?), and then a decline to D on the right side (when reality sets in) which would take SPY to 410 - 412 range. This is an important area, since it is at the POC (yellow line), and also is a 1.68% retrace. This is a 16 bar or 24 day process.

Summary:

Target – 410-412 by October 30, 2023 (-10.32% off the 7/27 high)

or

Target 410-412 by 12/31/2023 (assuming that the trend consolidates as it did in the yellow highlighted area on the left), which would be 8.99% for the year.

or

Potential Year end target – 420 (+11% from 12/30/2022 adjusted close), which is also the 50% or Gann square.

Target growth for the year range: 8.99% to 11%