The idea has two parts: fundamental and technical analysis. The latter is based on the weekly chart.
On the fundamental side, several essential and minor factors affect and could affect March 2023 price change. Let's divide them into three groups.
Bullish:
Bearish:
Joker:
The joker that could be a bullish or bearish driver is the weather. They can't predict winter weather today. Lasting temperatures above season norms in winter could be a lifesaver for Europe, dropping gas consumption and its prices. Cold spells and lingering temperatures under the winter season average would lift prices significantly. Near-average temperatures would put the significance of the factor on hold. While in summer, it is vice versa. Temperatures above the norms slow gas storage injection and slightly increase a lack of gas risk in the winter season.
On the technical side, there are no resistance levels cause the contract is traded near its record high. Only psychological levels like €200/MWh, €300/MWh, and higher. On the bulls' side, there are many support levels. For those practicing buy a bounce trading, essential levels are €125/MWh, €100/MWh, and €86/MWh. The last one developed in the December 2021-April 2022 period. I estimate that Gazprom made a significant contribution to its existence. Gazprom's export price to Europe, which was pegged to a fusion of lagged prices of fossil fuels, including TTF, was near to €86/MWh. So when the market price rose significantly above the level, market participants cut their demand because Gazprom sold cheaper. When the price tried to break through €86/MWh and went down, Gazprom trimmed its flows to Europe. All in all, this helped the company to control its revenues on the same level. Since then, it has not been the case because Gazprom has changed its approach.
Finally, I am afraid to forecast the price on the expiration date. I suppose the price would remain volatile, and we could see spikes above €200/MWh in the winter season.
Thank you for your reading, and have profitable trading! Comment your thoughts!
On the fundamental side, several essential and minor factors affect and could affect March 2023 price change. Let's divide them into three groups.
Bullish:
- Russian shutdown of gas supply to Europe
- Freeport LNG plant Restart Shift
- Limitations of US Gas Exports
- French Nuclear Plants Outages
- Dry Summer
Bearish:
- Slowing European Economy and Demand Destruction
- Slowing world economy
- Voluntary Demand Reductions of 15% and Gas Rationing
- Covid Lockdowns in Europe
- Covid Lockdowns in China
Joker:
The joker that could be a bullish or bearish driver is the weather. They can't predict winter weather today. Lasting temperatures above season norms in winter could be a lifesaver for Europe, dropping gas consumption and its prices. Cold spells and lingering temperatures under the winter season average would lift prices significantly. Near-average temperatures would put the significance of the factor on hold. While in summer, it is vice versa. Temperatures above the norms slow gas storage injection and slightly increase a lack of gas risk in the winter season.
On the technical side, there are no resistance levels cause the contract is traded near its record high. Only psychological levels like €200/MWh, €300/MWh, and higher. On the bulls' side, there are many support levels. For those practicing buy a bounce trading, essential levels are €125/MWh, €100/MWh, and €86/MWh. The last one developed in the December 2021-April 2022 period. I estimate that Gazprom made a significant contribution to its existence. Gazprom's export price to Europe, which was pegged to a fusion of lagged prices of fossil fuels, including TTF, was near to €86/MWh. So when the market price rose significantly above the level, market participants cut their demand because Gazprom sold cheaper. When the price tried to break through €86/MWh and went down, Gazprom trimmed its flows to Europe. All in all, this helped the company to control its revenues on the same level. Since then, it has not been the case because Gazprom has changed its approach.
Finally, I am afraid to forecast the price on the expiration date. I suppose the price would remain volatile, and we could see spikes above €200/MWh in the winter season.
Thank you for your reading, and have profitable trading! Comment your thoughts!
コメント:
Unexpected news from Freeport LNG came today. Freeport LNG plans its restart in October. It will cancel the mentioned bullish risk in the idea. Most likely, it is a moderate bearish sign for the TTF prices.
コメント:
Last week we saw the price broke through the remarkable €300/MWh.
Also, Freeport LNG changed its restart plan from October to November. It pointed out that the restart would be partial, the fully operational it would be by March. A mild bullish sign for the TTF price for this winter.
Also, Freeport LNG changed its restart plan from October to November. It pointed out that the restart would be partial, the fully operational it would be by March. A mild bullish sign for the TTF price for this winter.
コメント:
Over a few months, the following events took place:
* Freeport LNG didn't resume its operations in November. Yesterday a company's spokesperson said that the next target restart would happen by the end of the year. In January, it is expected to produce about 2 Bcf/d (56.6 Mcm/d).
* In November, Germany built its first LNG terminal in Wilhelmshaven. The terminal capacity is around 9.3 Bcm/year. According to its operator, the first operation should start before the end of the year.
* Freeport LNG didn't resume its operations in November. Yesterday a company's spokesperson said that the next target restart would happen by the end of the year. In January, it is expected to produce about 2 Bcf/d (56.6 Mcm/d).
* In November, Germany built its first LNG terminal in Wilhelmshaven. The terminal capacity is around 9.3 Bcm/year. According to its operator, the first operation should start before the end of the year.
コメント:
Today it was announced Freeport LNG canceled scheduled cargoes to load at the terminal at the end of January. However, it is still expected that Freeport LNG will resume its operations in the 2nd half of January.
コメント:
It has not affected the price or affected little, but for clarity, Freeport LNG received approval from FERC to resume its operations on February 21.
手動でトレードを終了しました:
Today is the last trading day of the contract, therefore it is time to summarize. Several factors described in the summer-22 influence price trends.
Unfortunately, no one has read my detailed idea.
We saw two periods. After I had posted the idea the crazy bullish trend continued. The factors that impacted were:
Russia hasn't stopped its supply to Europe but significantly reduced its deliveries 'thanks to' the Nord Stream sabotage. Essential dependence on Russian gas and European requirements to fulfill gas storage motivated traders in the summer of 2022 to buy gas at any price. That resulted in record prices in August.
The postponement of Freeport LNG delivery resumption also helped prices to stay elevated pro-long time. A weak French nuclear plant production buoyed prices, as well.
Since last autumn trend reversed and was driven by the following factors:
Gas demand destruction, especially in the industrial sector resulted in a substantial price decrease.
Severe covid restrictions in China have helped Europe to successfully procure enough gas for the winter season.
As was expected weather was the joker. Seasonally warm weather in Europe during most of the period between December and February has collapsed natural gas prices to the level of the August of 2021.
Unfortunately, no one has read my detailed idea.
We saw two periods. After I had posted the idea the crazy bullish trend continued. The factors that impacted were:
Russia hasn't stopped its supply to Europe but significantly reduced its deliveries 'thanks to' the Nord Stream sabotage. Essential dependence on Russian gas and European requirements to fulfill gas storage motivated traders in the summer of 2022 to buy gas at any price. That resulted in record prices in August.
The postponement of Freeport LNG delivery resumption also helped prices to stay elevated pro-long time. A weak French nuclear plant production buoyed prices, as well.
Since last autumn trend reversed and was driven by the following factors:
Gas demand destruction, especially in the industrial sector resulted in a substantial price decrease.
Severe covid restrictions in China have helped Europe to successfully procure enough gas for the winter season.
As was expected weather was the joker. Seasonally warm weather in Europe during most of the period between December and February has collapsed natural gas prices to the level of the August of 2021.