Gold and Silver have a unique relationship with the US10Y.

3 日前

Gold and Silver have a unique relationship with the US10Y since 2011.

Gold+Silver have always had a cool-off period when the US10Y relative touches this range bottom.

Nov US10Y auctions = gold/silver cool-off period.
The bond market MIGHT disagree with rate cuts again.

一昨日

ノート

Just to talk to the elephant in the room, the 2020 COVID crash is an anomalous event of this range.

However, there is some truth behind the saying that if the trend breaks the range bottom, then Gold will continue to rise much higher, as seen in the 2020 correlation pattern.

Assuming no black swan event, I would expect the 10-year yields to rise, and gold and silver to cool off in the short term.

4 時間前

ノート

For clarity, the trend can also continue up even if yields drop. It'll go up if yield decline > gold+silver decline.