The SPX has NEVER declined while Fed increases rates - NEVER!

The green boxes show each time the FED raised rates.
The SPX has NEVER declined while rates were increasing. IT'S NOT HAPPENED on the chart dating 1988!
I repeat. SPX HAS NEVER DECLINED WHEN FED INCREASES RATES. Check the blue line.

When the Fed increases the rates, the SPX goes up in value. It's always been like that in the past.

A market crash happens when the Fed starts lowering the rates.

My bet on the market top is Q1-Q2 2023.
The Fed will start lowering rates in 2023 in my opinion. Not before. Maybe even late 2023 or 2024.
Almost every time, when the Fed starts lowering rates, that's when the market turns around and crashes. Check the chart!

April 2022 = January 1999
From Jan 1999 to June 2000, the SPX increased 25%

I included the yield curve US10Y-US02Y on the chart. It will go down to -0.5%, same as in 2000.
When the yield starts rising again, that's when the market crashes.

Fed rate will top at 1.6%, maybe as much as 2%.

コメント:

When the FED increases rates, the yield curve always goes down and bottoms out.
In 2022, the yield curve will reach -0.5%.
As it starts increasing again, that's when we have a market crash.