USDCAD

2022年2月7日

Hi guys, hope you are doing well. Just a few thoughts on USDCAD. This pair had finished one of the patterns I mentioned before, however uprising channel was broken downside. So I closed my long positions (this pair was not able to overtake 1.28), in my opinion USDCAD is now in the neutral area with no clear trend. Looking at WTI, inflation data, job data, and political situation I would prefer to say neutral to bullish. WTI is now around the very strong trend line resistance and it looks that pullback is very possible. Inflation is skyrocketing in both economies, the question is who will be the fist to raise rates (in my opinion it will be around same time, inflation data on Thursday for US could trigger another bullish move for DXY). Job data is more positive to CAD in near future, since Canada had a huge drop in jobs last months due to Covid, from our experience they rebound very fast after lifting restrictions. As for the politics, talks about possible Russian aggression is affecting WTI very much, but if we will hear at least 1-2 good news about de-escalation, I think oil will go back to around $80-85 per barrel. So I would not short this pair for now, maybe buy a small long positions on pull backs.