USDPLN Breakthrough: Rally Ahead or Resistance at Play?

2023年8月25日

The rising USD against PLN has finally broken through its descending trendline. This strength in the dollar can be attributed to rising bond yields (amid an unmoved Federal Reserve) and the prevailing economic challenges in Poland and the European Union (recessions).

On a technical note: The USDPLN pair has successfully broken out of a descending trendline on the daily timeframe that was evident since October 2022. Post breakout, a retest of this trendline occurred and the pair has since persisted in its upward journey. When zooming in to the 4-hour chart, the upward trend remains unblemished. However, a key observation here is our current position relative to the 'overbalance' level, which stems from February's bullish correction phase. Should the USDPLN manage to breach this overbalance threshold, we could be looking at potential resistance in the 4.27 - 4.33 region. This zone not only houses the 200-day moving average but also coincides with January's previous low and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.

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2023年9月19日

ノート

📈 #USDPLN Update: Our predictions were on point! 🚀 After the anticipated break of overbalance resistance, USDPLN surged past our estimate, peaking at 4.35. Traded on our insight? You'd be up 2000 pips! 💰

Technically, we're beyond the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, and though RSI signals "overbought", its position over the RSI-based MA suggests a further rally towards 4.47 - 4.5, aligning with the 50% Fib level and recent resistance.

Should there be a shift, watch for the 4.25 - 4.28 zone; it's primed for a potential retest of the upward channel's top band & the 200-day MA. 📊

Current chart here:


Fundamentally, Poland's shock 75 basis point rate cut by the RPP hasn't been entirely priced in. Given the surprising dovish pivot and upcoming Polish elections, we foresee this serving as a bullish tailwind for weeks ahead. 🌬️

Celebrate the win, but stay vigilant. 🥳🔍

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2023年10月15日

ノート

📈 #USDPLN Mastery Update:

Our predictions for the USDPLN continue to stand tall! As we foresaw, the pair surged upwards, nearly kissing the 50% Fibonacci level at 4.45. Following this, in a predictable move, it retraced back to the very support zone we earmarked, staunchly defending the 4.25 level. If you’ve been trading on our insights, you'd have added another impressive 1000 pips to your tally and smartly capitalized on that dip!

🔍 What's Next?

As we gaze at the charts, the 4.22 - 4.25 region appears robust, beckoning traders for another potential dip-buying opportunity. This zone is an amalgamation of technical significance – housing both the 50 & 200 MA, as well as the upward trendline of the emerging trend.

Adding fuel to our bullish stance are the winds from the fundamental arena. The RPP, in a somewhat anticipated move, slashed interest rates again, right before today's elections. While the short-term might see some gusty winds, the medium-term horizon looks clear for the pair to set its sights on 4.45 and then the towering 4.6 landmarks (aligned with the previous local high and the 50% & 61.8% Fibonacci levels).

Trade smart and ride the wave with us. If history is any indication, our compass rarely misdirects!

Current chart here:


#ForexInsights #TradeSmart #PipHarvest #CurrencyCarnival #PolishEconomicTales 🇵🇱📊🚀🔝