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2021 Oil Trade Plan - Part 1 - Time for a Healthy Correction

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Oil Has been on sharp rally on the up-side but nothing goes up on a straight line.
While the Monthly chart shows a bullish trend, we are seeing weakness on the 4h chart.

There are many ways that this could play out, the most likely scenario I believe is a correction to mid 40s before breaking out to the 70.

How to enter the short?

I'm looking for a pullback to the 62s before opening. I will be watching the price action should the correction begin and I will be taking profits and scaling up on strategic positions shown.

Follow this idea for updates on how to strategically play the short positions and scale up.

Remember, do not risk more than 5% of your total trading pool on one idea so size your positions accordingly.
This means if you have a $10,000 trading account, from the entry point to the stop loss should only cause you to lose $500 if the trade does not go your way.

Play safe.

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Our entry point is closing in

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Trade active

Stop set at $64.30

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I'm looking for the following price action to confirm the turn.
I'm expecting this to be an ABC pullback before we go back down.

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I see a lot of perma-bulls out there and it's concerning. Sometimes you just need to take a step back and see where the price is most likely to go.

We are facing a monthly trendline resistance. Of course there is a chance that we break that, but the PROBABILITY leans towards the down side.

Here is a monthly chart. We can begin to be bullish if it breaks out of the monthly and consolidates. That is our confirmation of bull. But before that, we will be on the short side.

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Trade Closed - Stop Reached.

Stay tuned for later ideas.

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We need to sit on the sidelines to see where this price takes us.
An unexpected news from OPEC came out which is the reason for the price run up.

I do not want to be shorting on these positions since it has broken out of the monthly. This could go up to 66-68 level and it's better to cut losses until we get a more clear signal.

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I expect oil to do some sideways for a while from here.
This will be a test to see if it can stay outside of the structure - this is a very bullish formation.

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