The move up is going to be more violent.

2020年3月22日

This move down was from panic selling due to everyone thinking the coronavirus will be here forever. What everybody doesn't know is that active rigs will shutdown at faster rate this time than ever. Already we have active rig count down by 20 this week to 667. If we have 80 to 100 active rigs shutting down a month it will also hurt supply which should balance the current demand. The question is when the coronavirus passes how many active rigs will we have left? My prediction is at that time active rigs will be down to 250 - 300. Meaning US supply will be down to about 5-6 million barrels a day while demand is coming back strong. China was able to flatten out the curve on coronavirus within 3 months. US will most likely do it in 60 days. Also in between people will most likely be getting checks from the government which will expands the currency supply dramatically. I believe that we are going through a one way door were inflation is going to run very high to the point we never go back to what we believe is normal. You will likely see $10+ a gallon of oil soon.

Another thing is we have no gold standard right now meaning they will do whatever it takes to print the currency as much as we need and give it to the people. They will fill every cracks will currency for sure. I truly believe we will have the worst stagflation like Japan.