I really don't think the dollar is going lower here. We've largely been moving sideway for the past 6 months consolidating.
You'll see on the chart that price action in January fell below key support. Then after that we rallied and tested the 200 DMA 3 times and have also retested support 3 times and haven't broken through. Now that price action is well above support, I think the next big move is up through the 200DMA.
The only way the dollar is going lower is if it breaks that key support. And I think we need to see a higher dollar before that support is broken.
I bought a lot of $30 UUP calls for September to express this view.
You'll see on the chart that price action in January fell below key support. Then after that we rallied and tested the 200 DMA 3 times and have also retested support 3 times and haven't broken through. Now that price action is well above support, I think the next big move is up through the 200DMA.
The only way the dollar is going lower is if it breaks that key support. And I think we need to see a higher dollar before that support is broken.
I bought a lot of $30 UUP calls for September to express this view.
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So far, so good. Got the bounce