"Good Alts" VS "Dead Alts"
アップデート済
Hey guys. I know I said I wouldn't post any more written analysis until the next broader move for the crypto market becomes more apparent. While we patiently wait for the reaction from the 50w/100w bullish MA cross for Bitcoin, I thought I'd take a look at what makes an alt "dead" versus one of the ones that seems likely to survive through the rest of this bottoming period.
Above, you can see I've put two coins side by side. In fact, VET and WTC were once considered to be competitors, and perhaps equals by some investors. They are both "supply chain" coins, though VeChain differentiates itself as a platform in a number of ways. Waltonchain (right) has clearly underperformed. This is something I forecasted myself, when I sold my entire WTC position much earlier this year. The reason I sold was NOT due to price action. You can see that even selling based on the chart hasn't always been a foolproof method, since VET briefly made a lower low recently, but bounced impressively afterwards. I sold my WTC position because I thought their marketing blunders would be very difficult to overcome, and I didn't think they were professional enough to compete. And this was AFTER averaging down on it, choosing to ignore the glaring red flags. I eventually made a decision to sell at a loss, expecting that they'd probably get buried. Since I sold, WTC has continued its freefall as other cryptos have held horizontal supports, even though it was already 98% down from its all-time high. It is now 99% down. Yes, it could pump 100% in the near future, but it doesn't seem likely to ever achieve its former glory, price wise.
When you look at the VET chart, you can see that VET has actually held the same horizontal support zone for an entire year. It is also back above the lows from August, 2018. Many alts (including big caps like ETH, XRP, and XLM) aren't even above those August 2018 lows. Waltonchain would have to go roughly 400% from current prices to get back comfortably to that zone.
This is basically an observational post. It's also to see whether or not specific altcoin performance over the last year will influence future price appreciation. Below, I will make some more comparisons, so you can see how drastic the differences in performance are across the altcoin market:
The LINK/USD chart versus the GVT/USD chart almost looks like the complete inverse! ChainLink is up 1000% in the same timeframe that Genesis Vision is down 66-70%! This is an extreme example. GVT is the second altcoin position I dumped over the last year. I sold it in favor of ONT. My ONT position is a little above break even, while GVT is down over 60% since I sold.
Perhaps more subtle, you can see that even investing in NANO at the bottom in August 2018 would have saved you losses, compared with Ethereum in the same timeframe. NANO has continuously tested the same horizontal support since then, while Ethereum continues to find resistance at the support from the August, 2018 altcoin capitulation. It should be noted that ETH is at a 90% overall loss since the peak, compared with NANO over 97%.
XTZ (Tezos) outperforming NEO:
BAT vastly outperforming XLM, which hasn't even been able to retest the August 2018 support since it broke down last November:
And lastly, McDaddy Bitcoin outperforming XRP, but not by that wide of a margin. XRP only recently broke down from that support, and Bitcoin came close to testing it recently.
Anyway, I find this interesting, particularly since most of what I do is observe and analyze the crypto market. I will continue to post when I can, but things have slowed down considerably. However, altcoins are still behaving very similar to the 2015 crypto bear market bottom. The oscillator divergence is a little bit less extreme this time, which could indicate weakness here, but it's still there. We also have arguably NOT broken this trendline. It really depends on how you draw it. With growth slowing down, I expect this trendline to eventually form a curve, so it's not necessary that it's held perfectly. I do think these trendlines are important when figuring out where price may bounce or get rejected, as evidenced by my perfect top call in June.
If we are seeing a long term bottoming period for this market, based on this analysis it is clear that not all alts are created equally. There's also a whole class of alts that pump and dump from the same supports and resistances in each altcoin cycle. Maybe I'll do a separate post on those.
Here I will also list my coin positions from biggest to smallest, as well as my lowest and highest buy-in points. I also list my break even point if at a loss.
VeChain (VET) - Lowest purchase: $0.0034, current price $0.0069. Up over 100% from bottom. Highest purchase around $5/$0.05 in 2017. Overall break even point around $0.01. Due to its performance over the last month, VET is my largest position right now.
Ethereum (ETH) - Lowest purchase: $107, current price $148. Up roughly 30%, including a buy at $130. Position in overall profit.
XRP - Only purchase - $0.32. Current price, $0.227. Down 30%. Break even at $0.32
NEO - Average (lowest) buy: $6.00, current price $8.90. Up about 50%. Position in overall profit.
NANO - Lowest purchase: $0.80, current price $0.83. Highest purchase $20 in 2017 (ouch!). Break even point around $2.00.
Ontology (ONT) - Lowest buy (only purchase) - $0.60. Current price $0.62. Up about 4%. Position in overall profit.
Stellar Lumens (XLM) - Lowest buy $0.059. Current price $0.055. Down about 10%. Highest purchase $0.40 in 2017. Break even point around $0.16. Overall loss about 75%. Has held my portfolio down the most.
Smartlands (SLT) - Lowest buy $0.30. Current price $0.31. Original purchase at $1 in 2018. Break even point around $0.75. Overall 50% loss.
Former positions: :
Tronix (TRX) - bought at 240 sats in 2018, sold at 600 sats for NEO, hence my low average buy-in for NEO. I sold TRX because their ecosystem is not user-friendly when compared with NEO/ONT.
Waltonchain (WTC) - lowest buy $2. Highest purchase - $25 in 2018. Overall loss, probably close to 80%.
Genesis Vision (GVT) - lowest purchase $6. Highest purchase - $27. Overall loss, probably around 50%, even though I sold it for ONT.
This crypto thing has been an experiment for me in a number of ways. Above is my personal record. I will emphasize that I am still roughly 50% down on my principle investment. This is with ONLY investing in altcoins since the beginning of 2018. Not terrible (the overall altcoin market is still down 87%), but also really not ideal. I could have easily avoided some losses by selling at least half of all my crypto when I called the top in June. But alas, most of my analysis is for my own education. I do plan on trading more eventually, but when my life situation gets a little more stable (I'm in a big transition period).
This is not financial advice. I will continue to use this platform as my investing/crypto journal. Aside from personal use, this is meant for education, speculation, and entertainment only.
-Victor Cobra
Above, you can see I've put two coins side by side. In fact, VET and WTC were once considered to be competitors, and perhaps equals by some investors. They are both "supply chain" coins, though VeChain differentiates itself as a platform in a number of ways. Waltonchain (right) has clearly underperformed. This is something I forecasted myself, when I sold my entire WTC position much earlier this year. The reason I sold was NOT due to price action. You can see that even selling based on the chart hasn't always been a foolproof method, since VET briefly made a lower low recently, but bounced impressively afterwards. I sold my WTC position because I thought their marketing blunders would be very difficult to overcome, and I didn't think they were professional enough to compete. And this was AFTER averaging down on it, choosing to ignore the glaring red flags. I eventually made a decision to sell at a loss, expecting that they'd probably get buried. Since I sold, WTC has continued its freefall as other cryptos have held horizontal supports, even though it was already 98% down from its all-time high. It is now 99% down. Yes, it could pump 100% in the near future, but it doesn't seem likely to ever achieve its former glory, price wise.
When you look at the VET chart, you can see that VET has actually held the same horizontal support zone for an entire year. It is also back above the lows from August, 2018. Many alts (including big caps like ETH, XRP, and XLM) aren't even above those August 2018 lows. Waltonchain would have to go roughly 400% from current prices to get back comfortably to that zone.
This is basically an observational post. It's also to see whether or not specific altcoin performance over the last year will influence future price appreciation. Below, I will make some more comparisons, so you can see how drastic the differences in performance are across the altcoin market:
The LINK/USD chart versus the GVT/USD chart almost looks like the complete inverse! ChainLink is up 1000% in the same timeframe that Genesis Vision is down 66-70%! This is an extreme example. GVT is the second altcoin position I dumped over the last year. I sold it in favor of ONT. My ONT position is a little above break even, while GVT is down over 60% since I sold.
Perhaps more subtle, you can see that even investing in NANO at the bottom in August 2018 would have saved you losses, compared with Ethereum in the same timeframe. NANO has continuously tested the same horizontal support since then, while Ethereum continues to find resistance at the support from the August, 2018 altcoin capitulation. It should be noted that ETH is at a 90% overall loss since the peak, compared with NANO over 97%.
XTZ (Tezos) outperforming NEO:
BAT vastly outperforming XLM, which hasn't even been able to retest the August 2018 support since it broke down last November:
And lastly, McDaddy Bitcoin outperforming XRP, but not by that wide of a margin. XRP only recently broke down from that support, and Bitcoin came close to testing it recently.
Anyway, I find this interesting, particularly since most of what I do is observe and analyze the crypto market. I will continue to post when I can, but things have slowed down considerably. However, altcoins are still behaving very similar to the 2015 crypto bear market bottom. The oscillator divergence is a little bit less extreme this time, which could indicate weakness here, but it's still there. We also have arguably NOT broken this trendline. It really depends on how you draw it. With growth slowing down, I expect this trendline to eventually form a curve, so it's not necessary that it's held perfectly. I do think these trendlines are important when figuring out where price may bounce or get rejected, as evidenced by my perfect top call in June.
If we are seeing a long term bottoming period for this market, based on this analysis it is clear that not all alts are created equally. There's also a whole class of alts that pump and dump from the same supports and resistances in each altcoin cycle. Maybe I'll do a separate post on those.
Here I will also list my coin positions from biggest to smallest, as well as my lowest and highest buy-in points. I also list my break even point if at a loss.
VeChain (VET) - Lowest purchase: $0.0034, current price $0.0069. Up over 100% from bottom. Highest purchase around $5/$0.05 in 2017. Overall break even point around $0.01. Due to its performance over the last month, VET is my largest position right now.
Ethereum (ETH) - Lowest purchase: $107, current price $148. Up roughly 30%, including a buy at $130. Position in overall profit.
XRP - Only purchase - $0.32. Current price, $0.227. Down 30%. Break even at $0.32
NEO - Average (lowest) buy: $6.00, current price $8.90. Up about 50%. Position in overall profit.
NANO - Lowest purchase: $0.80, current price $0.83. Highest purchase $20 in 2017 (ouch!). Break even point around $2.00.
Ontology (ONT) - Lowest buy (only purchase) - $0.60. Current price $0.62. Up about 4%. Position in overall profit.
Stellar Lumens (XLM) - Lowest buy $0.059. Current price $0.055. Down about 10%. Highest purchase $0.40 in 2017. Break even point around $0.16. Overall loss about 75%. Has held my portfolio down the most.
Smartlands (SLT) - Lowest buy $0.30. Current price $0.31. Original purchase at $1 in 2018. Break even point around $0.75. Overall 50% loss.
Former positions: :
Tronix (TRX) - bought at 240 sats in 2018, sold at 600 sats for NEO, hence my low average buy-in for NEO. I sold TRX because their ecosystem is not user-friendly when compared with NEO/ONT.
Waltonchain (WTC) - lowest buy $2. Highest purchase - $25 in 2018. Overall loss, probably close to 80%.
Genesis Vision (GVT) - lowest purchase $6. Highest purchase - $27. Overall loss, probably around 50%, even though I sold it for ONT.
This crypto thing has been an experiment for me in a number of ways. Above is my personal record. I will emphasize that I am still roughly 50% down on my principle investment. This is with ONLY investing in altcoins since the beginning of 2018. Not terrible (the overall altcoin market is still down 87%), but also really not ideal. I could have easily avoided some losses by selling at least half of all my crypto when I called the top in June. But alas, most of my analysis is for my own education. I do plan on trading more eventually, but when my life situation gets a little more stable (I'm in a big transition period).
This is not financial advice. I will continue to use this platform as my investing/crypto journal. Aside from personal use, this is meant for education, speculation, and entertainment only.
-Victor Cobra
ノート
I realize I forgot to include the TOTAL2 chart in this post. Here it is, showing the slight divergence and the long term trend. ノート
It's not really a divergence in the normal sense, since both price and oscillator are making higher lows. It's mostly just confirmation by the oscillator that this could be the final part of the bottoming period.ノート
I also forgot to mention another feature on the main chart here: The green horizontal resistance. Those are the areas that VET and WTC need to clear, in order to confirm that the bottoming period has ended. For VET, that's a 40% or so move up from here. By comparison, WTC needs to go 700% to confirm a bottom.ノート
Even though the market has dropped since I made this post, VET still needs to only go 2X to confirm a longer term reversal, while WTC needs to go 10X.
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