By Morgan Stanley:
Growth of online apparel sales accelerated in 4Q20, and we project such trend to sustain thanks to consumption spending shifting to discretionary products.
We expect VIPS to sustain strong active user growth momentum, thanks to its improving user engagement amid more brand partners, effective marketing, and integrated online and offline solutions.
Potential regulatory risk from the ongoing anti-trust investigation is still overhanging, but we see limited impact for now.
Our PT of US$33 implies 19x 2021e P/E, which is not demanding, given our projected 24% earnings CAGR in 2020-23e, vs. the average 2021e P/E at >20x for global peers with only single-digit earnings growth.
Bull Case: $50/share
Growth of online apparel sales accelerated in 4Q20, and we project such trend to sustain thanks to consumption spending shifting to discretionary products.
We expect VIPS to sustain strong active user growth momentum, thanks to its improving user engagement amid more brand partners, effective marketing, and integrated online and offline solutions.
Potential regulatory risk from the ongoing anti-trust investigation is still overhanging, but we see limited impact for now.
Our PT of US$33 implies 19x 2021e P/E, which is not demanding, given our projected 24% earnings CAGR in 2020-23e, vs. the average 2021e P/E at >20x for global peers with only single-digit earnings growth.
Bull Case: $50/share