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$vix about to explode higher again

Most people think that because we had a vix spike in early August and that stocks are now near all-time-highs, we're going back to a short volatility and long equity environment. However, I think this time is different.

From a technical perspective, we've been consolidating in falling wedge since the move higher in March 2008 and the move on August 5th setoff the 3rd touch of the top of the trend line. On the chart, that's price rejecting the $56.55 level. Now vix has gone back to the support it broke out from and looks set to make another run at the highs.

Because the trend line has already been tested multiple times, I think it's likely that on this next test of that resistance level, it'll break through and surge higher.

I don't know what the cause of the surge higher will be, but from the chart, it looks like we're about to have a larger vix explosion than we had in 2008, 2020, and august 5th.

Time to pay attention and protect your gains if you've been long.

I don't think there's recovering in the near term from what's about to happen to markets.

The move has started.

Right on time? Is this pivot going to be the one that sends higher? Press play and you can see the first green flat bottomed candle after yesterday's pivot.

If yes, then I think it's likely that we see a top before the next pivot (Friday, Sep 6)

Looks like the pivot today was actually the breakout for VIX. Let's see what happens over the coming week

Just realized I haven't updated here in a bit. I've been updating my chart on UVXY. Still think the move will play out, but likely to hit the lower support first. Once that happens, I'll be buying options on UVXY for 10/4 expiry.

TBD on exact strike, etc.

Will likely look at it tomorrow.

I don't think the move will play out until after the fed meeting next week. Likely Wednesday/Thursday.

Probably vol compression/chop until then.

Tomorrow could be a vol shock, but I think it's just going to form a double top or lower high that'll be short lived.

So it'll be a trade rather than a position. I think after the fed meeting likely a better time to enter again, but let's see. Or you could just take an ATM position out to middle of October or November and just sit in it.

一昨日

Looks like we should get a larger move next week. Let's see what happens.