Is Vol About to Explode?

2020年10月14日

With the majors at all-time high's and vol getting cheaper by the day, let's take a look at what the technicals are saying. With the exception of Monday and Tuesday's close this week, we've been trading above the 50 day MA since the end of August, and the fact that the 50 day is now rising, translates into bullish price action.

Today we got a solid bounce off the 50 day MA, and kissed the 100 day MA at 27.20. If we break above the 100 day MA again, the next major resistance is at 30 (200 day MA), then the previous high around 38. In my recent posts, I've discussed the possibility of a head and shoulders pattern playing out on the SPY (S&P), with significant downside if the head is indeed at the 300 (3000) level. After breaking above all major resistances last week, though, the bullish continuation theory gained more traction.

After this recent price action, we're witnessing a double top emerging on the weekly, with the all-time weekly high sitting at 350. This is a key resistance level to watch this week, and if we fail to break above, it could determine if momentum shifts to the downside as we approach the election. This could mean major upside for vol in the interim. Risk is not being priced appropriately at the moment, which presents us with an opportunity.

Thanks for your time today guys, and have a great evening! Cheers, Michael.

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2020年10月15日

ノート

Vol catching a bid here, now sitting comfortably above the 50 day MA, and 100 day MA, up around 9% on the day. Markets have barely sold off 1%, and vol is on fire. If we see any more strength into the weekly close, we're going to break the channel resistance and the next stop is at the 200 day MA at 30, and then the previous high at 38. Stay tuned for more updates throughout the day.

2020年10月15日

ノート

Vol seeing some selling pressure here as the majors catch a bid. Back to sub 28's, and giving up roughly half of the day's gains. Did someone call the plunge protection team?

2020年10月15日

ノート

Vol back at the 100 day MA (27.20). Markets caught in another 45 degree laser pump driven by "optimism" (buy-backs). Let's see if the 100 day holds up as support heading into power hour... My guess is it's risk off time, so vol may take off like a rocket if the majors show signs of further weakness.

2020年10月15日

ノート

Vol looking resilient as SPY hits key intraday resistance levels. Sitting just below the 100 day MA heading into the close. Anyone thinking about hedging before tomorrow's Mega-Tech Op-Ex? Get in line.

2020年10月15日

ノート

That's all, folks! We closed right around the 200 period MA on the hourly. But, we lost the important 100 day MA, after capturing this level this morning. We held onto the 50 day and continue to trend upward, but todays' price action points to indecision/complacency around the current risk climate. Tomorrow should be interesting to say the very least, so I hope to see you guys at the show. Thanks for your time today. Cheers, Michael.