2390-2280 WALK THROUGH TO FOMC PART 8
So after the first move down. I started with 2 drafts. The second of which is almost exactly like this one. But I had the date set about a week and a half off due to "gearing up for FOMC. What finally made sense today is that, FOMC IS BASICALLY THE LOW or a week from that.
So let's get this up first.
For long termers. No idea here, but if you are "long gold bull market thesis "oriented", grab that low and hold for 6 months, with the caveat that I have NOT CHECK WHAT THAT WOULD MEAN LONGER TERM.
So let's get this up first.
For long termers. No idea here, but if you are "long gold bull market thesis "oriented", grab that low and hold for 6 months, with the caveat that I have NOT CHECK WHAT THAT WOULD MEAN LONGER TERM.
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6/5, it all makes sense now:
1) overnight low is a SHALLOW 43-ish (not much retrace)
2) Thurs initial claims 2373 reaction
3) Friday 2391 NFP reaction
4) Sunday check down
5) Monday check up
6) Tuesday starts 100 pt drop that ends Thursday morning AFTER FOMC
1) overnight low is a SHALLOW 43-ish (not much retrace)
2) Thurs initial claims 2373 reaction
3) Friday 2391 NFP reaction
4) Sunday check down
5) Monday check up
6) Tuesday starts 100 pt drop that ends Thursday morning AFTER FOMC
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7) honestly don't care what happens after that
8) just want to bank this 100 pt drop with extreme leverage
8) just want to bank this 100 pt drop with extreme leverage
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@Fomomania, shorting corrections are probably the quickest best trade to do. Because they always so damn quick. None of this dragged out long term bull rally BS.
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6:48 PM ET... I have something THAT MAKES WAY MORE SENSE!!!
a) but let's play it by ear and surprise next week!!
b) you'll be shocked!
a) but let's play it by ear and surprise next week!!
b) you'll be shocked!
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7:02 PM ET.., let's not pissed people off and tell them what's up:
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1) this is early look at PART 9
2) very early
3) this gotta be the one
2) very early
3) this gotta be the one
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4) I just couldn't figure out what should happen after 2280
5) then I realized.. it STOPS AT 2315 on 6/12 !
6) YOU CAN'T PROVE IT'S GOING TO 2280
7) and then I realized that's THAT'S PERFECT 1-2, 1-2, 1-2!
8) so from 6/12 to 7/4 we go 2315-2750!!
5) then I realized.. it STOPS AT 2315 on 6/12 !
6) YOU CAN'T PROVE IT'S GOING TO 2280
7) and then I realized that's THAT'S PERFECT 1-2, 1-2, 1-2!
8) so from 6/12 to 7/4 we go 2315-2750!!
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9) can I get a HELL YEAH!!?
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7:19 PM ET..
1) so the second 1-2 has to be 75 points...
2) bc the July rally is 435 pts
3) 6/12-7/4 16 trading days, 15 if you live in USA
1) so the second 1-2 has to be 75 points...
2) bc the July rally is 435 pts
3) 6/12-7/4 16 trading days, 15 if you live in USA
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6/5, 8:55 PM ET, 2355.XX
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1. ALL LONG TERM INVESTORS MUST BUY NOW
2. PERIOD
3. DON'T SWEAT $10-$15 DOLLARS
4. YOU ARE TRADING MONTHS
2. PERIOD
3. DON'T SWEAT $10-$15 DOLLARS
4. YOU ARE TRADING MONTHS
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5) THE MOVE IS FOR 2900 IN LATE AUGUST
6) BEFORE JACKSON HOLE
7) OR WORST CASE... WOULD BE 2775-2825 SOMETHING LIKE THAT
8) AND IT'S NOT OBVIOUS TO ME...
9) THAT THE NEXT CHECKDOWN IS LOWER THAN 2350
6) BEFORE JACKSON HOLE
7) OR WORST CASE... WOULD BE 2775-2825 SOMETHING LIKE THAT
8) AND IT'S NOT OBVIOUS TO ME...
9) THAT THE NEXT CHECKDOWN IS LOWER THAN 2350
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9:04 PM 2358.XX -- FOR EVERYONE ELSE---
1) THIS CHART IS WRONG
2) IT'S NOT OBVIOUS WHAT THE MOVE UP SHOULD LOOK LIKE
1) THIS CHART IS WRONG
2) IT'S NOT OBVIOUS WHAT THE MOVE UP SHOULD LOOK LIKE
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9:09 PM ET SO HERE'S WHAT'S GOING ON....
a) I misread the 'duration of the rally
b) it's going to take 7-8 weeks
c) the soft ceiling is 2775 and the hard ceiling is 2925
d) so THE SCALE OF THE MOVES ARE MUCH BIGGER THEN I IMAGINED
e) for example
f) where I thought the second 1-2 was going to top at 2373-2381
h) it's going to top at 2415
i) so my original read was right
j) we are going to 24xx by Monday or Tuesday or Maybe Friday
k) I don't know
l) but the move is excessively strong
m) BECAUSE IT HAS TO BE
n) not because it's bearish
o) but because the 1-2 is fucking gigantic
p) it's going to be a 100-point 1-12
q) BUT THE PROBLEM IS
r) it's on a slant
s) so the check down after 2415 WILL BE IGHER THAN 2350-55
t) this is another way of saying that...
u) my read earlier that I did not see any weakness .. was all correct
w) THE PART THAT WAS WRONG..
v) was that I ASSUMED THERE SHOULD BE A CHECK DOWN
w) to 2331, bc there will not be
x) AT BEST RIGHT NOW? 2343 tonight ...
y) and that is AN IF, not a sure thing
z) ok
a) I misread the 'duration of the rally
b) it's going to take 7-8 weeks
c) the soft ceiling is 2775 and the hard ceiling is 2925
d) so THE SCALE OF THE MOVES ARE MUCH BIGGER THEN I IMAGINED
e) for example
f) where I thought the second 1-2 was going to top at 2373-2381
h) it's going to top at 2415
i) so my original read was right
j) we are going to 24xx by Monday or Tuesday or Maybe Friday
k) I don't know
l) but the move is excessively strong
m) BECAUSE IT HAS TO BE
n) not because it's bearish
o) but because the 1-2 is fucking gigantic
p) it's going to be a 100-point 1-12
q) BUT THE PROBLEM IS
r) it's on a slant
s) so the check down after 2415 WILL BE IGHER THAN 2350-55
t) this is another way of saying that...
u) my read earlier that I did not see any weakness .. was all correct
w) THE PART THAT WAS WRONG..
v) was that I ASSUMED THERE SHOULD BE A CHECK DOWN
w) to 2331, bc there will not be
x) AT BEST RIGHT NOW? 2343 tonight ...
y) and that is AN IF, not a sure thing
z) ok
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9:19 PM ET... 2365.xx see?
1) the short term math says WE NOT SUPPOSE TO BE HERE
2) but the long term math says WE SUPPOSE TO BE 2425 NOW
3) so the "average normal mind set" to anticipate price action here
4) is all wrong.. .
5) where I said last in PART 7 ...
6) that this new move IS SOMEHOW GOING TO BE STRONGER THAN RED MOVE
7) which at that time was THE QUICKEST MOVE UP
8) was dead on
9) I just thought that maybe I'm seeing things wrong
10) I realize now that trend engine was right from the ground up
1) the short term math says WE NOT SUPPOSE TO BE HERE
2) but the long term math says WE SUPPOSE TO BE 2425 NOW
3) so the "average normal mind set" to anticipate price action here
4) is all wrong.. .
5) where I said last in PART 7 ...
6) that this new move IS SOMEHOW GOING TO BE STRONGER THAN RED MOVE
7) which at that time was THE QUICKEST MOVE UP
8) was dead on
9) I just thought that maybe I'm seeing things wrong
10) I realize now that trend engine was right from the ground up
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11) I cannot stop to discuss '"daily price action"
12) because all of that is based on intermediate range
13) and right now, what people think should be "intermediate range"
14) meaning weekly price range - from which daily price range is inferred
15) is WAY OFF
16) so all I can say right now is
a) 2775-2925 before Jackson Hole in late August
b) and HOW WE GET THERE
c) is very fuzzy
12) because all of that is based on intermediate range
13) and right now, what people think should be "intermediate range"
14) meaning weekly price range - from which daily price range is inferred
15) is WAY OFF
16) so all I can say right now is
a) 2775-2925 before Jackson Hole in late August
b) and HOW WE GET THERE
c) is very fuzzy
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6/5, 9:33 PM 2371.XX
a) see?
b) it's too fast for me to adjust
c) bc my fastest route don't have 2373 until tomorrow night
d) so that's out the window
a) see?
b) it's too fast for me to adjust
c) bc my fastest route don't have 2373 until tomorrow night
d) so that's out the window
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e) there's not much else I can help you with right now
f) I have to game plan myself first
f) I have to game plan myself first
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9:58 PM, 66.xx, IF YOU SEE THIS UNDER 50 IN THE RETRACE
A) BUY IT
B) FULL STOP
A) BUY IT
B) FULL STOP
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6/5 11:31 PM, This is is one of those last moments.
a) last chance to tag a number in under 2350
b) under 2360 we may see after retrace from 2420 before FOMC
c) but under 2350? hm... this may be the last day 2352 gets tagged
a) last chance to tag a number in under 2350
b) under 2360 we may see after retrace from 2420 before FOMC
c) but under 2350? hm... this may be the last day 2352 gets tagged
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d) when I say last day, I mean last 6 hours
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6/6 it is, 1:08 AM, no check-down...
a) so we may not see 2352 or less
b) for a very a long time
c) in which case....
d) this sideways has 2 breaking points
e) first one in 5 hours to check 2357
f) that's it
a) so we may not see 2352 or less
b) for a very a long time
c) in which case....
d) this sideways has 2 breaking points
e) first one in 5 hours to check 2357
f) that's it
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g) but that's not necessarily obvious...
h) if it keeps going ...
i) the obvious break is 2387
h) if it keeps going ...
i) the obvious break is 2387
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1:35 AM: If London moves it to 50, obvious BUY.
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SO HERE IS PART 9:
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