Good morning,
I was recently asked a question how to see a difference between an X wave and a trend continuation. For instance, with the multi-month decline in Gold almost complete, how do we know that the advance out of the lows that will start in a few days will still be part of a correction?
A possible answer to this - the full correction needs to demonstrate sufficient struggle between bears and bulls. Even if we have a three wave structure in a correction, but it is mostly selling or buying to the trendline, then it's most likely just a Y wave, which will be followed by a disruptive X wave, but which in its turn will be followed by a W wave. I think we are going to have this setup in Gold. Please take a look at a structure formed in 1980-1984 to see an example of a complete correction. Note however, than even if the structure is complete from the "bull-bear struggle" perspective, it does not guarantee trend resumption which was due in 1984, but I suspect it is one of the prerequisites for it to happen.
Anyway, back to Gold, present time: I think the advance in Gold will start the week after XMas, once we see the last low in EUR (the last high in DXY). Patience until then.
I was recently asked a question how to see a difference between an X wave and a trend continuation. For instance, with the multi-month decline in Gold almost complete, how do we know that the advance out of the lows that will start in a few days will still be part of a correction?
A possible answer to this - the full correction needs to demonstrate sufficient struggle between bears and bulls. Even if we have a three wave structure in a correction, but it is mostly selling or buying to the trendline, then it's most likely just a Y wave, which will be followed by a disruptive X wave, but which in its turn will be followed by a W wave. I think we are going to have this setup in Gold. Please take a look at a structure formed in 1980-1984 to see an example of a complete correction. Note however, than even if the structure is complete from the "bull-bear struggle" perspective, it does not guarantee trend resumption which was due in 1984, but I suspect it is one of the prerequisites for it to happen.
Anyway, back to Gold, present time: I think the advance in Gold will start the week after XMas, once we see the last low in EUR (the last high in DXY). Patience until then.
