GOLD soars, attention to the Middle East and data
Affected by tensions in the Middle East and falling US bond yields, demand for safe havens increased and gold prices achieved the target increase at 2,672 USD. Note to readers in the publication issue Before gold fake correction,. Gold prices are still hovering below recent record highs after the Fed Chairman hinted at smaller interest rate cuts in the future.
As fears of an all-out war in the Middle East increased after Iran launched ballistic missiles at Israel, gold prices rose due to safe-haven demand.
Iran fired multiple ballistic missiles at Israel on Tuesday in retaliation for Israel's actions against its Lebanese ally Hezbollah.
Salami, commander of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, said Iran fired 200 missiles at Israel in an operation Tuesday night local time.
• White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan called Iran's missile attacks a “significant escalation,” but said they were ultimately “defeated and ineffective,” in part because the US military helped shoot down several incoming missiles.
• Sullivan emphasized that the attack will have consequences and that the United States is consulting with Israel on next steps or possible responses.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that Iran made a big mistake and will pay the price.
This series of launches was the largest missile attack on Israel in Iran's history.
Iran's Revolutionary Guards claimed that 90% of their missiles successfully hit targets in Israel. As of now, no casualties have been officially reported.
Israel's emergency services have lifted all restrictions and people in Tel Aviv have emerged from bomb shelters and returned to the streets.
Iran's president says he does not want war but will resolutely fight any threat from Israel.
Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, which is considered a safe haven asset in times of economic and political turmoil. Gold posted its best quarterly gain since 2020 last quarter after the Federal Reserve began its rate-cutting cycle in September with a 50 basis point cut.
Major banks expect gold to continue its record price increase in 2025, due to a resurgence of large capital flows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and expectations of further interest rate cuts from major banks. major central banks, including the Federal Reserve.
Gold has risen nearly $577 year to date, or more than 28%, which would be the largest annual gain since 2010.
Goldman Sachs raised its gold price forecast in early 2025 to $2,900/ounce from $2,700/ounce, citing a gradual increase in ETF inflows as Western and Chinese interest rates cut and central banks increased strong buy.
Next, the market will pay attention to this week's US labor force data, as well as speeches from Federal Reserve officials, for further guidance on the US's policy stance.
Analysis of technical prospects for
XAUUSD
On the daily chart, gold recovered and reached its target gain at $2,672 yesterday. Temporarily, the upward momentum of gold prices is also limited by the above technical level.
Although the upward momentum is limited, the uptrend still dominates the daily technical chart. Once the $2,672 level is broken, gold will be eligible to increase further with a target level at an all-time peak established. Previously at 2,685USD.
There is no possibility of any significant price decline, as long as gold remains within the price channel it will remain bullish in the short term. Price drops that do not break below the price channel should only be considered short-term corrections.
During the day, the bullish outlook for gold prices will be noticed by the following technical levels.
Support: 2,645 – 2,634USD
Resistance: 2,672 – 2,685USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2701 - 2699⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2705
→Take Profit 1 2694
↨
→Take Profit 2 2689
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2619 - 2621⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2615
→Take Profit 1 2626
↨
→Take Profit 2 2631
As fears of an all-out war in the Middle East increased after Iran launched ballistic missiles at Israel, gold prices rose due to safe-haven demand.
Iran fired multiple ballistic missiles at Israel on Tuesday in retaliation for Israel's actions against its Lebanese ally Hezbollah.
Salami, commander of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, said Iran fired 200 missiles at Israel in an operation Tuesday night local time.
• White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan called Iran's missile attacks a “significant escalation,” but said they were ultimately “defeated and ineffective,” in part because the US military helped shoot down several incoming missiles.
• Sullivan emphasized that the attack will have consequences and that the United States is consulting with Israel on next steps or possible responses.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that Iran made a big mistake and will pay the price.
This series of launches was the largest missile attack on Israel in Iran's history.
Iran's Revolutionary Guards claimed that 90% of their missiles successfully hit targets in Israel. As of now, no casualties have been officially reported.
Israel's emergency services have lifted all restrictions and people in Tel Aviv have emerged from bomb shelters and returned to the streets.
Iran's president says he does not want war but will resolutely fight any threat from Israel.
Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, which is considered a safe haven asset in times of economic and political turmoil. Gold posted its best quarterly gain since 2020 last quarter after the Federal Reserve began its rate-cutting cycle in September with a 50 basis point cut.
Major banks expect gold to continue its record price increase in 2025, due to a resurgence of large capital flows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and expectations of further interest rate cuts from major banks. major central banks, including the Federal Reserve.
Gold has risen nearly $577 year to date, or more than 28%, which would be the largest annual gain since 2010.
Goldman Sachs raised its gold price forecast in early 2025 to $2,900/ounce from $2,700/ounce, citing a gradual increase in ETF inflows as Western and Chinese interest rates cut and central banks increased strong buy.
Next, the market will pay attention to this week's US labor force data, as well as speeches from Federal Reserve officials, for further guidance on the US's policy stance.
Analysis of technical prospects for
XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold recovered and reached its target gain at $2,672 yesterday. Temporarily, the upward momentum of gold prices is also limited by the above technical level.
Although the upward momentum is limited, the uptrend still dominates the daily technical chart. Once the $2,672 level is broken, gold will be eligible to increase further with a target level at an all-time peak established. Previously at 2,685USD.
There is no possibility of any significant price decline, as long as gold remains within the price channel it will remain bullish in the short term. Price drops that do not break below the price channel should only be considered short-term corrections.
During the day, the bullish outlook for gold prices will be noticed by the following technical levels.
Support: 2,645 – 2,634USD
Resistance: 2,672 – 2,685USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2701 - 2699⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2705
→Take Profit 1 2694
↨
→Take Profit 2 2689
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2619 - 2621⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2615
→Take Profit 1 2626
↨
→Take Profit 2 2631
ノート
ADP Employment change data are typically released two days before the official NFP report, which is also considered a preliminary indicator of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) jobs report. Job market data has become the focus of attention recently due to its growing impact on the Fed's latest monetary policy decisions.ノート
Gold adjusted to fall deeply below 2,650 USD/oz
After soaring above 2,660 USD/oz due to Israel's threat of "retaliation" against Iran, gold prices have now dropped more than 150 pips to 2,648 USD/oz.
ノート
At the end of the trading session on October 2, the spot gold contract dropped 0.5% to 2,649.41 USD/oz. Gold prices rose more than 1% on October 1 after Iran launched missiles to attack Israel.ノート
ノート
Gold prices traded with a downtrend for the second day in a row as the USD strengthened.
Expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates by 50 basis points in November were pushed back, helping the USD rise to its highest level in weeks.
Geopolitical risks continue to act as a driving force to limit XAU/USD's decline.
ノート
The Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) US services PMI rose 3.4 points to 54.9 last month. The new orders index increased 6.4 points to its highest level since the beginning of 2023. The above data shows that the US economy is still quite solid at the end of the third quarter. Treasury yields and the S&P 500 index rose following the figures.ノート
At the end of the trading session on October 3, the spot gold contract was almost flat at 2,657.89 USD/oz, after reaching a record high of 2,685.42 USD/oz.ノート
- According to CME's FedWatch Tool, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 0.50% has decreased to 34.6% from more than 57% last week. Market participants will monitor today's Nonfarm Payrolls release to further assess this possibility.
- XAUUSD recently consolidated in the 2.640-2.685 range
ノート
Gold price increased to 2,670 USD/oz
Gold prices have dropped more than 300 pips to close to 2630 USD/oz due to the strong US employment report, gold prices have now recovered all the decline to 2670 USD/oz.
ノート
At the end of the trading session on October 4, the spot gold contract retreated 0.3% to 2,647.52 USD/oz, after reaching a record high of 2,685.42 USD/oz last week. Gold futures contracts lost 0.5% to 2,666.60 USD/oz.
US job growth accelerated in September and the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, further reducing pressure on the Fed to lower interest rates by 0.5% at its November 6-7 policy meeting.
ノート
In the context of rising global debt and instability, gold remains the only asset that does not carry third-party risks and does not come with geopolitical risks. These are the two main reasons why major central banks continuously hoard gold.
The strong payroll report seems to have made investors certain of a cut of 25 basis points (0.25%) instead of 50 basis points. Prices have declined in the short term, but optimism remains for gold.
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