Continue to adjust, pay attention to $2,400 level, FOMC minutes

5月22日

In the Asian market on May 22, spot gold suddenly dropped in the short term but did not affect the main trend. Gold price fell sharply from the highest level of the session as of the time this article was completed, which was 2,426 USD/oz, and set a new intraday low at 2,412 USD/oz.

XAUUSD fell from record highs earlier this week as the Federal Reserve became cautious about cutting interest rates. However, geopolitical risks in the Middle East still boost safe-haven demand, which could limit the decline in gold prices.
Fed Governor John Waller said Tuesday that it will take "several more months" of good inflation data before considering an interest rate cut. Atlanta Fed President Bostic said Tuesday he is in no rush to cut interest rates but wants to wait longer to ensure inflation doesn't start to fluctuate.
Fed officials warned the Fed needs more evidence that inflation is easing before it starts cutting interest rates, emphasizing that the Fed could keep interest rates high for a longer period of time. This could boost the US Dollar and put gold prices in US Dollars under pressure.
Gold's decline may be limited amid US-China trade tensions, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and strong demand from central banks and buyers in Asia, which could support gold subsidy.
Later in the trading day on Wednesday, gold traders will closely monitor the minutes of the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and Goolsby's speech from Federal Reserve officials.

Analysis of technical prospects for XAUUSD
Gold has adjusted down, but the downward adjustments are not damaging the main uptrend with the uptrend from the short-term price channel and the main uptrend trend.
During the day, the uptrend in gold prices will be noticed by support levels from 2,410 – 2,400 USD and as long as gold remains in the price channel, it will still have a technical upside prospect.
Even if gold is sold off below the 0.236% Fibonacci extension, the decline will still be limited by support from the trend and EMA21.

Overall assessment, the technical picture for gold prices will continue to lean towards the possibility of price increase with short-term technical levels noted as follows.
Support: 2,410 – 2,400USD
Resistance: 2,430 – 2,450USD

🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2443 - 2441

⚰️SL: 2447

⬆️TP1: 2436
⬆️TP2: 2431

🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2396 - 2398

⚰️SL: 2392

⬆️TP1: 2403
⬆️TP2: 2408

5月23日

ノート

5月23日

ノート

🔹Goldman Sachs: Saudi Arabia aims to spend $3.3 trillion on investments

Goldman Sachs Bank confirmed in a research note issued yesterday, Wednesday, that Saudi Arabia is working to increase local investments, with the aim of increasing the share of non-oil GDP in the total domestic product to 65% within 6 years, from about 45% currently.

5月23日

ノート

The positive preliminary PMI data knocked investors' confidence that the Fed will begin cutting interest rates from its September meeting. The CME FedWatch tool shows that investors predict a 53% chance of the Fed lowered interest rates in September, down from the previous 58% after the preliminary PMI report was released.

5月26日

ノート

- The US dollar remains, by a very large margin, the world's reserve currency.
- Recent events indicate that the dollar's influence has increased significantly.
- The real return on capital is not appropriate to use to measure long-term neutral interest.
- Real 10-year Treasury yields are a good real proxy for the theoretical value of the neutral interest rate.

5月27日

ノート

Gold prices witnessed a noticeable rise at the beginning of the week’s trading, today, Monday, in an attempt to recover from their lowest level in two weeks, supported by the decline in the US dollar index, in addition to the decline in US bond yields, amid markets’ anticipation of the release of personal consumer spending index data in... The US Federal Reserve's preferred inflation rate is scheduled to be released later this week, which may have a clear impact on the upcoming trading of both the US dollar and gold metal.

5月28日

ノート

Gold prices rose slightly on Monday (May 27) from a two-week low recorded in the previous session, as investors assessed fading hopes of a US interest rate cut ahead of the inflation report. Key findings announced this weekend.